| Literature DB >> 25072033 |
M Sol Schvartzman1, Ursula Gonzalez-Barron2, Francis Butler2, Kieran Jordan3.
Abstract
Surface-ripened cheeses are matured by means of manual or mechanical technologies posing a risk of cross-contamination, if any cheeses are contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes. In predictive microbiology, primary models are used to describe microbial responses, such as growth rate over time and secondary models explain how those responses change with environmental factors. In this way, primary models were used to assess the growth rate of L. monocytogenes during ripening of the cheeses and the secondary models to test how much the growth rate was affected by either the pH and/or the water activity (aw) of the cheeses. The two models combined can be used to predict outcomes. The purpose of these experiments was to test three primary (the modified Gompertz equation, the Baranyi and Roberts model, and the Logistic model) and three secondary (the Cardinal model, the Ratowski model, and the Presser model) mathematical models in order to define which combination of models would best predict the growth of L. monocytogenes on the surface of artificially contaminated surface-ripened cheeses. Growth on the surface of the cheese was assessed and modeled. The primary models were firstly fitted to the data and the effects of pH and aw on the growth rate (μmax) were incorporated and assessed one by one with the secondary models. The Logistic primary model by itself did not show a better fit of the data among the other primary models tested, but the inclusion of the Cardinal secondary model improved the final fit. The aw was not related to the growth of Listeria. This study suggests that surface-ripened cheese should be separately regulated within EU microbiological food legislation and results expressed as counts per surface area rather than per gram.Entities:
Keywords: Baranyi and Roberts; Gompertz; Listeria monocytogenes; Presser; growth; mathematical modeling
Mesh:
Year: 2014 PMID: 25072033 PMCID: PMC4079949 DOI: 10.3389/fcimb.2014.00090
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Cell Infect Microbiol ISSN: 2235-2988 Impact factor: 5.293
pH and a.
| CM | pH | |
| RM | pH and aw | |
| PM | pH |
Figure 1Growth of .
Figure 2Growth of .
Figure 3pH in smear-ripened cheeses batch 1 (—), batch 2 (——) and in mold-ripened cheeses, batch 3 (– – –).
Figure 4a.
Goodness of fit of the primary models.
| Logistic model | 192 | 198 | 204 | 1.41 |
| Modified Gompertz | 187 | 195 | 203 | 1.48 |
| Baranyi's model | 183 | 191 | 199 | 1.51 |
Figure 5Baranyi primary model (A), Logistic model (B) and Gompertz model (C); dots represent observed data and lines represent the predicted outcome.
Estimates of the primary models with their standard errors and .
| μmax | 0.2557 | 0.1026 | 0.4465 |
| Standard error | 0.04217 | 0.03618 | 0.03818 |
| <0.0001 | 0.0064 | <0.0001 | |
| 6.5323 | – | 6.8333 | |
| Standard error | 0.4316 | – | 0.4701 |
| <0.0001 | – | <0.0001 | |
| – | 9.1007 | – | |
| Standard error | – | 3.0676 | – |
| – | 0.0044 | – | |
| – | 6.9492 | – | |
| Standard error | – | 1.6938 | – |
| – | <0.0001 | – |
μ.
Goodness of fit of the secondary models with pH as a variable.
| Logistic model | 144 | 154 | 157 | 1.11 | 167 | 175 | 183 | 0.97 | 166 | 174 | 182 | – |
| Modified Gompertz | 208 | 220 | 232 | 1.48 | 186 | 196 | 207 | 1.35 | 193 | 201 | 209 | 1.49 |
| Baranyi's model | – | – | – | – | 174 | 184 | 194 | 1.15 | 179 | 189 | 200 | 0.69 |
–, no convergence; CM, cardinal model; RM, Ratkwosky model; PM, Presser model.
Figure 6Observed growth (•) and Logistic Cardinal model predicted growth (—).
Figure 7Validation of the Logistic Cardinal model with data on growth of .