Development of the Likelihood of Low Glucose (LLG) algorithm for evaluating risk of hypoglycemia: a new approach for using continuous glucose data to guide therapeutic decision making.

The objective was to develop an analysis methodology for generating diabetes therapy decision guidance using continuous glucose (CG) data. The novel Likelihood of Low Glucose (LLG) methodology, which exploits the relationship between glucose median, glucose variability, and hypoglycemia risk, is mathematically based and can be implemented in computer software. Using JDRF Continuous Glucose Monitoring Clinical Trial data, CG values for all participants were divided into 4-week periods starting at the first available sensor reading. The safety and sensitivity performance regarding hypoglycemia guidance "stoplights" were compared between the LLG method and one based on 10th percentile (P10) values. Examining 13 932 hypoglycemia guidance outputs, the safety performance of the LLG method ranged from 0.5% to 5.4% incorrect "green" indicators, compared with 0.9% to 6.0% for P10 value of 110 mg/dL. Guidance with lower P10 values yielded higher rates of incorrect indicators, such as 11.7% to 38% at 80 mg/dL. When evaluated only for periods of higher glucose (median above 155 mg/dL), the safety performance of the LLG method was superior to the P10 method. Sensitivity performance of correct "red" indicators of the LLG method had an in sample rate of 88.3% and an out of sample rate of 59.6%, comparable with the P10 method up to about 80 mg/dL. To aid in therapeutic decision making, we developed an algorithm-supported report that graphically highlights low glucose risk and increased variability. When tested with clinical data, the proposed method demonstrated equivalent or superior safety and sensitivity performance.