Outpatient pain predicts subsequent one-year acute health care utilization among adults with sickle cell disease.

CONTEXT: Patient demographic and clinical factors have known associations with acute health care utilization (AHCU) among patients with sickle cell disease (SCD), but it is unknown if pain measured predominantly in an outpatient setting is a predictor of future AHCU in patients with SCD.
OBJECTIVES: To determine whether multidimensional pain scores obtained predominantly in an outpatient setting predicted subsequent 1-year AHCU by 137 adults with SCD and whether the pain measured at a second visit also predicted AHCU.
METHODS: Pain data included the Composite Pain Index (CPI), a single score representative of a multidimensional pain experience (number of pain sites, intensity, quality, and pattern). Based on the distribution of AHCU events, we divided patients into three groups: 1) zero events (zero), 2) 1 to 3 events (low), or 3) 4 to 23 events (high).
RESULTS: The initial CPI scores differed significantly by the three groups (F(2,134) = 7.38, P = 0.001). Post hoc comparisons showed that the zero group had lower CPI scores than both the low (P < 0.01) and high (P < 0.001) groups. In multivariate overdispersed Poisson regression analyses, age and CPI scores (at both measurement times) were statistically significant predictors of utilization events. Pain intensity scores at both measurement times were significant predictors of utilization, but other pain scores (number of pain sites, quality, and pattern) were not.
CONCLUSION: Findings support use of outpatient CPI scores or pain intensity and age to identify at-risk young adults with SCD who are likely to benefit from improved outpatient pain management plans.