Sajjad Hussain1, Azhar Mahmood Kayani2, Rubab Munir3, Irum Abid4. 1. Department of Cardiology, Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology - National Institute of Heart Diseases, Rawalpindi. 2. Department of Cardiology, Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology, National Institute of Heart Diseases, Rawalpindi. 3. Heart Transplant and Research Department, Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology, National Institute of Heart Diseases, Rawalpindi. 4. Centre of Research in Experimental and Applied Medicine, N.U.S.T., Islamabad.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To determine the effectiveness of Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) in a Pakistani systolic heart failure cohort in predicting mortality in this population. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study. PLACE AND DURATION OF STUDY: The Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology - National Institute of Heart Diseases, Rawalpindi, from March 2011 to March 2012. METHODOLOGY: One hundred and eighteen patients with heart failure (HF) from the registry were followed for one year. Their 1-year mortality was calculated using the SHFM software on their enrollment into the registry. After 1-year predicted 1-year mortality was compared with the actual 1-year mortality of these patients. RESULTS: The mean age was 41.6 ± 14.9 years (16 - 78 years). There were 73.7% males and 26.3% females. One hundred and fifteen patients were in NYHA class III or IV. Mean ejection fraction in these patients was 23 ± 9.3%. Mean brain natriuretic peptide levels were 1230 ± 1214 pg/mL. Sensitivity of the model was 89.3% with 71.1% specificity, 49% positive predictive value and 95.5% negative predictive value. The accuracy of the model was 75.4%. In ROC analysis, AUC for the SHFM was 0.802 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: SHFM was found to be reliable in predicting one-year mortality among patients with heart failure in the Pakistani patients.
OBJECTIVE: To determine the effectiveness of Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) in a Pakistani systolic heart failure cohort in predicting mortality in this population. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study. PLACE AND DURATION OF STUDY: The Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology - National Institute of Heart Diseases, Rawalpindi, from March 2011 to March 2012. METHODOLOGY: One hundred and eighteen patients with heart failure (HF) from the registry were followed for one year. Their 1-year mortality was calculated using the SHFM software on their enrollment into the registry. After 1-year predicted 1-year mortality was compared with the actual 1-year mortality of these patients. RESULTS: The mean age was 41.6 ± 14.9 years (16 - 78 years). There were 73.7% males and 26.3% females. One hundred and fifteen patients were in NYHA class III or IV. Mean ejection fraction in these patients was 23 ± 9.3%. Mean brain natriuretic peptide levels were 1230 ± 1214 pg/mL. Sensitivity of the model was 89.3% with 71.1% specificity, 49% positive predictive value and 95.5% negative predictive value. The accuracy of the model was 75.4%. In ROC analysis, AUC for the SHFM was 0.802 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: SHFM was found to be reliable in predicting one-year mortality among patients with heart failure in the Pakistani patients.