| Literature DB >> 24555130 |
João Pedro Marques1, Miguel Costa2, Pedro Melo2, Carlos Manta Oliveira3, Isabel Pires1, Maria Luz Cachulo1, João Figueira4, Rufino Silva4.
Abstract
Purpose. To evaluate the contribution of the ocular risk factors in the conversion of the fellow eye of patients with unilateral exudative AMD, using a novel semiautomated grading system. Materials and Methods. Single-center, retrospective study including 89 consecutive patients with unilateral exudative AMD and ≥3 years of followup. Baseline color fundus photographs were graded using an innovative grading software, RetmarkerAMD (Critical Health SA). Results. The follow-up period was 60.9 ± 31.3 months. The occurrence of CNV was confirmed in 42 eyes (47.2%). The cumulative incidence of CNV was 23.6% at 2 years, 33.7% at 3 years, 39.3% at 5 years, and 47.2% at 10 years, with a mean annual incidence of 12.0% (95% CI = 0.088-0.162). The absolute number of drusen in the central 1000 and 3000 μ m (P < 0.05) and the absolute number of drusen ≥125 µm in the central 3000 and 6000 µm (P < 0.05) proved to be significant risk factors for CNV. Conclusion. The use of quantitative variables in the determination of the OR of developing CNV allowed the establishment of significant risk factors for neovascularization. The long follow-up period and the innovative methodology reinforce the value of our results. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00801541.Entities:
Year: 2013 PMID: 24555130 PMCID: PMC3910538 DOI: 10.1155/2013/464218
Source DB: PubMed Journal: ISRN Ophthalmol ISSN: 2090-5688
Figure 1Print screens of real-time grading using RetmarkerAMD. (a) Calibration is achieved after manually identifying the fovea and establishing optic disc diameter (blue dot and arrow, resp.). The software then generates a reference grid (b) that follows the International Classification and Grading System for AMD [12]. (c) Both free forms and predefined circles (63 μm, 125 μm, 175 μm, 250 μm, and 500 μm) can be used for quantifying fundus features in digital color fundus photographs, including drusen, pigmentary changes, geographic atrophy, or exudative lesions.
Choroidal neovascularization: number or events, cumulative incidence, and cumulative risk over the ten-year period of follow up.
| Time | CNV occurrence | Cumulative incidence | Cumulative risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7.9 | 0.0787 (95% CI = 0.0375–0.1650) |
| 2 | 14 | 23.6 | 0.2532 (95% CI = 0.1650–0.3885) |
| 3 | 9 | 33.7 | 0.3889 (95% CI = 0.2713–0.5575) |
| 5 | 5 | 39.3 | 0.5418 (95% CI = 0.3787–0.7750) |
| 10 | 7 | 47.2 | 1.4674 (95% CI = 0.8547–2.5194) |
Figure 2Cumulative hazard for conversion over the ten-year followup period.
Univariate analysis to determine the predictive value of conversion, using variables expressed in a categorical manner.
| Variable | Pearson |
|
|---|---|---|
| Predominant type of drusen in the central 6000 | — | 0.697 |
| Number of drusen | — | 0.535 |
| Area covered by drusen in the central 1000 | — | 0.805 |
| Hyperpigmentation | — | 0.515 |
| Hypopigmentation | — | 0.192 |
| Number of drusen <63 | — | 0.566 |
| Number of drusen ≥63 | 6.5333 | 0.088 |
| Number of drusen ≥125 | — | 0.848 |
| Total area covered by drusen | — | 0.358 |
| Total area covered by drusen in the central 3000 | — |
|
| Total area covered by drusen in the central 6000 | — | 0.470 |
| Confluence of drusen | — | 0.738 |
| Age-related macular degeneration stage | — | 0.604 |
Baseline morphologic drusen characteristics (number and area) expressed as continuous variables.
| Parameter |
| Median | Interquartile range |
|---|---|---|---|
|
| |||
| Number of drusen ≥125 | 89 | 1 | 0–4 |
| Total number of drusen | 89 | 6 | 1–13 |
| Area occupied by drusen ≥125 | 89 | 12 | 0–83 |
| Total drusen area | 89 | 44 | 7–113 |
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| Number of drusen ≥125 | 89 | 26 | 1–47 |
| Total number of drusen | 89 | 83 | 33–143 |
| Area occupied by drusen ≥125 | 89 | 351 | 12–966 |
| Total drusen area | 89 | 689 | 127–1322 |
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| Number of drusen ≥125 | 89 | 54 | 10–132 |
| Total number of drusen | 89 | 123 | 38–210 |
| Area occupied by drusen ≥125 | 89 | 742 | 93–1973 |
| Total drusen area | 89 | 1329 | 404–3180 |
Univariate analysis to determine the predictive value of conversion, using continuous variables.
| Parameter | Mann-Whitney | |
|---|---|---|
| Drusen ≥ 125 | All drusen | |
|
| ||
| Real number of drusen | 0.3232 |
|
| Real area of drusen | 0.6274 | 0.3118 |
|
| ||
|
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| Real number of drusen | 0.0881 | 0.0844 |
| Real area of drusen | 0.4725 | 0.5126 |
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|
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| Real number of drusen | 0.5287 | 0.3785 |
| Real area of drusen | 0.7529 | 0.6870 |
Model 1 of multivariate analysis: logistic regression with odds ratio (OR) estimates considering only large drusen (≥125 μm).
| Parameter | OR | Standard error |
| 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| ||||
| Age | 0.985 | 0.057 | 0.796 | 0.880–1.103 |
| Drusen number (continuous) | 1.297 | 0.195 | 0.083 | 0.966–1.740 |
| Area occupied by drusen (continuous) | 0.990 | 0.008 | 0.194 | 0.975–1.005 |
| Pigmentation (yes/no) | 0.148 | 0.183 | 0.123 | 0.013–1.673 |
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| Age | 0.920 | 0.755 | 0.309 | 0.783–1.080 |
| Drusen number (continuous) | 1.091 | 0.033 |
| 1.028–1.158 |
| Area occupied by drusen (continuous) | 0.997 | 0.001 |
| 0.995–1.000 |
| Pigmentation (yes/no) | 0.018 | 0.031 |
| 0.001–0.512 |
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| Age | 0.957 | 0.067 | 0.528 | 0.835–1.097 |
| Drusen number (continuous) | 1.028 | 0.013 |
| 1.003–1.054 |
| Area occupied by drusen (continuous) | 0.999 | 0.001 |
| 0.998–0.999 |
| Pigmentation (yes/no) | 0.036 | 0.053 |
| 0.002–0.649 |
Model 2 of multivariate analysis: logistic regression with odds ratio (OR) estimates considering the totality of drusen.
| Parameter | OR | Standard Error |
| 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| ||||
| Age | 1.006 | 0.040 | 0.871 | 0.931–1.088 |
| Drusen number (continuous) | 1.106 | 0.041 |
| 1.029–1.189 |
| Area occupied by drusen (continuous) | 0.996 | 0.003 | 0.200 | 0.990–1.002 |
| Pigmentation (yes/no) | 0.664 | 0.092 |
| 0.004–0.993 |
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| Age | 0.949 | 0.071 | 0.480 | 0.820–1.098 |
| Drusen number (continuous) | 1.017 | 0.008 |
| 1.002–1.032 |
| Area occupied by drusen (continuous) | 0.999 | 0.001 | 0.205 | 0.998–1.001 |
| Pigmentation (yes/no) | 0.041 | 0.058 |
| 0.003–0.652 |
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| Age | 0.962 | 0.068 | 0.580 | 0.837–1.105 |
| Drusen number (continuous) | 1.006 | 0.003 | 0.051 | 1.000–1.012 |
| Area occupied by drusen (continuous) | 0.995 | 0.000 | 0.134 | 0.999–1.000 |
| Pigmentation (yes/no) | 0.037 | 0.056 |
| 0.002–0.710 |
Cumulative incidences of CNV on the fellow eyes of patients with unilateral exudative AMD between our and other studies.
| Authors | Followup |
| Cumulative incidence (years) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (months) | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | ||
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| Pauleikhoff et al. [ | 30.5 (6–80) | 187 | 15.2% | 26.1% | 40.7% | — | — |
| Solomon et al. [ | 24–48 | 364 | 22% | — | 37% | — | — |
| MPS [ | 60 | 228 | 12% | — | 22% | 42% | — |
| MPS [ | 60 | 670 | 19% | — | 36% | — | |
| van Leeuwen et al. [ | 48–156 | 35 | — | — | — | 38.7% | — |
| Uyama et al. [ | 47 (12–108) | 170 | 5.6% | — | — | 12.3% | — |