Charlotte Le Cornet1, Joannie Lortet-Tieulent2, David Forman2, Rémi Béranger3, Aude Flechon4, Béatrice Fervers5, Joachim Schüz6, Freddie Bray2. 1. Section of Environment and Radiation, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, 69372 Lyon CEDEX 08, France; Unité Cancer et Environnement, Centre Léon Bérard, 28 rue Laennec, 69373 Lyon CEDEX 08, France. Electronic address: Lecornetc@students.iarc.fr. 2. Section of Cancer Information, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, 69372 Lyon CEDEX 08, France. 3. Section of Environment and Radiation, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, 69372 Lyon CEDEX 08, France; Unité Cancer et Environnement, Centre Léon Bérard, 28 rue Laennec, 69373 Lyon CEDEX 08, France; Université Claude Bernard - Lyon1, 43 Boulevard du 11 Novembre 1918, 69622 Villeurbanne CEDEX, France. 4. Centre de Lutte Contre le Cancer, Centre Léon Bérard, 28 rue Laennec, 69373 Lyon CEDEX 08, France. 5. Unité Cancer et Environnement, Centre Léon Bérard, 28 rue Laennec, 69373 Lyon CEDEX 08, France; Université Claude Bernard - Lyon1, 43 Boulevard du 11 Novembre 1918, 69622 Villeurbanne CEDEX, France; Centre de Lutte Contre le Cancer, Centre Léon Bérard, 28 rue Laennec, 69373 Lyon CEDEX 08, France. 6. Section of Environment and Radiation, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, 69372 Lyon CEDEX 08, France.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Testicular cancer mainly affects White Caucasian populations, accounts for 1% of all male cancers, and is frequently the most common malignancy among young adult men. In light of the escalating rates of testicular cancer incidence in Europe, and in support of future planning to ensure optimal care of patients with what can be a curable disease, we predict the future burden in 40 European countries around 2025. METHODS: Current observed trends were extrapolated with the NORDPRED model to estimate the future burden of testicular cancer in the context of changes in risk versus changes in demographics. FINDINGS: Despite substantial heterogeneity in the rates, the vast majority of European countries will see an increasing burden over the next two decades. We estimate there will be 23,000 new cases of testicular cancer annually in Europe by 2025, a rise of 24% from 2005. Some of the most rapid increases in testicular cancer are observed in Croatia, Slovenia, Italy and Spain, and a transition is underway, whereby recent attenuations and declines in rates in certain high-risk countries in Northern Europe contrast with the increasing trends and escalating burden in Southern Europe. According to our estimates for 2025, around one in 100 men will be diagnosed with the disease annually in the highest risk countries of Europe (Croatia, Slovenia and Norway). INTERPRETATION: Elucidating the key determinants of testicular cancer and the equitable provision of optimal care for patients across Europe are priorities given the steady rise in the number of patients by 2025, and an absence of primary prevention opportunities. FUNDING: None.
BACKGROUND:Testicular cancer mainly affects White Caucasian populations, accounts for 1% of all male cancers, and is frequently the most common malignancy among young adult men. In light of the escalating rates of testicular cancer incidence in Europe, and in support of future planning to ensure optimal care of patients with what can be a curable disease, we predict the future burden in 40 European countries around 2025. METHODS: Current observed trends were extrapolated with the NORDPRED model to estimate the future burden of testicular cancer in the context of changes in risk versus changes in demographics. FINDINGS: Despite substantial heterogeneity in the rates, the vast majority of European countries will see an increasing burden over the next two decades. We estimate there will be 23,000 new cases of testicular cancer annually in Europe by 2025, a rise of 24% from 2005. Some of the most rapid increases in testicular cancer are observed in Croatia, Slovenia, Italy and Spain, and a transition is underway, whereby recent attenuations and declines in rates in certain high-risk countries in Northern Europe contrast with the increasing trends and escalating burden in Southern Europe. According to our estimates for 2025, around one in 100 men will be diagnosed with the disease annually in the highest risk countries of Europe (Croatia, Slovenia and Norway). INTERPRETATION: Elucidating the key determinants of testicular cancer and the equitable provision of optimal care for patients across Europe are priorities given the steady rise in the number of patients by 2025, and an absence of primary prevention opportunities. FUNDING: None.
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