Risk factors and prodromal markers and the development of Parkinson's disease.

Identification of risk factors and prodromal markers for Parkinson's disease (PD) and the understanding of the point in time of first occurrence is essential for the early detection of incident PD. In this three-center longitudinal, observational study, we evaluated the specific risk for PD associated with single or combinations of risk factors and prodromal markers. In addition, we evaluated which risk factors and prodromal markers emerge at which time before the diagnosis of PD. Of the 1,847 at-baseline PD-free individuals ≥ 50 years, 1,260 underwent the 5-year follow-up assessment. There were 21 cases of incident PD during the study period. Enlarged hyperechogenic substantia nigra was the most frequent baseline sign in individuals developing PD after 3 years (80.0 %) and 5 years (85.7 %) compared to healthy controls (17.5 %) followed by the occurrence of mild parkinsonian signs and hyposmia. Evaluation of the signs at the first follow-up assessment showed that individuals developing PD after two additional years showed the same pattern of signs as individuals who developed PD 3 years after baseline assessment.