Can items used in 4-year-old well-child visits predict children's health and school outcomes?

To examine whether items comprising a preschool well-child check for use by family doctors in Australia with 4-5-year old children predicts health and academic outcomes at 6-7 years. The well-child check includes mandatory (anthropometry, eye/vision, ear/hearing, dental, toileting, allergy problems) and non-mandatory (processed food consumption, low physical activity, motor, behaviour/mood problems) items. The predictive validity of mandatory and non-mandatory items measured at 4-5 years was examined using data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. Outcomes at 6-7 years included overweight/obesity, asthma, health care/medication needs, general health, mental health problems, quality of life, teacher-reported mathematics and literacy ability (n = 2,280-2,787). Weight or height >90th centile at 4-5 years predicted overweight/obesity at 6-7 years with 60% sensitivity, 79% specificity and 40% positive predictive value (PPV). Mood/behaviour problems at 4-5 predicted mental health problems at 6-7 years with 86% sensitivity, 40% specificity and 8% PPV. Non-mandatory items improved the discrimination between children with and without mental health problems at 6-7 years (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.75 compared with 0.69 for mandatory items only), but was weak for most outcomes. Items used in a well-child health check were moderate predictors of overweight/obesity and mental health problems at 6-7 years, but poor predictors of other health and academic outcomes.