A statistical reevaluation of the data used in the Lanphear et al. ( 2005 ) pooled-analysis that related low levels of blood lead to intellectual deficits in children.

A pooled-analysis by Lanphear et al. (2005) of seven cohort studies of the association between blood lead (BPb) concentrations in children and measures of their intelligence concluded that "environmental lead exposure in children who have maximal blood lead levels <7.5 μg/dL is associated with intellectual deficits." This study has played a prominent role in shaping the public understanding of the effects upon children's IQ of low BPb exposures (e.g., BPb ≤ 10 μg/dL). Here we present a reanalysis of the data used by Lanphear et al. to evaluate the robustness of their conclusions. Our analysis differed from that of Lanphear et al. primarily in how we controlled for non-lead variables (allowing a number of them to be site-specific), how we defined summary measures of BPb exposure, and in how we decided which BPb measures and transformations best modeled the data. We also reproduced the Lanphear et al. analysis. Although we found some small errors and questionable decisions by Lanphear et al. that, taken alone, could cause doubt in their conclusions, our reanalysis tended to support their conclusions. We concluded that there was statistical evidence that the exposure-response is non-linear over the full range of BPb evaluated in these studies, which implies that, for a given increase in blood lead, the associated IQ decrement is greater at lower BPb levels. However at BPb below 10 µg/dL, the exposure-response is adequately modeled as linear. We also found statistical evidence for an association with IQ among children who had maximal measured BPb levels ≤7 μg/dL, and concurrent BPb levels as low as ≤5 μg/dL.