BACKGROUND: Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. METHODS: A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. RESULTS: Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. CONCLUSION: The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.
BACKGROUND: Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. METHODS: A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. RESULTS: Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. CONCLUSION: The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.
Authors: Marcus R Keogh-Brown; Simon Wren-Lewis; W John Edmunds; Philippe Beutels; Richard D Smith Journal: Health Econ Date: 2010-11 Impact factor: 3.046
Authors: Nathaniel J Webb; Joshua Lindsley; Erica L Stockbridge; Ashleigh Workman; Conner D Reynolds; Thaddeus L Miller; Jean Charles; Michael Carletti; Stefanie Casperson; Stephen Weis Journal: Medicine (Baltimore) Date: 2022-07-29 Impact factor: 1.817
Authors: Matthew J Cummings; Barnabas Bakamutumaho; John Kayiwa; Timothy Byaruhanga; Nicholas Owor; Barbara Namagambo; Allison Wolf; Joseph F Wamala; Stephen S Morse; Julius J Lutwama; Max R O'Donnell Journal: Ann Am Thorac Soc Date: 2016-12
Authors: Janetta E Skarp; Laura E Downey; Julius W E Ohrnberger; Lucia Cilloni; Alexandra B Hogan; Abagael L Sykes; Susannah S Wang; Hiral Anil Shah; Mimi Xiao; Katharina Hauck Journal: Appl Health Econ Health Policy Date: 2021-06-11 Impact factor: 3.686