| Literature DB >> 23990275 |
Anne H van Houwelingen1, Ian D Cameron, Jacobijn Gussekloo, Hein Putter, Susan Kurrle, Anton J M de Craen, Andrea B Maier, Wendy P J den Elzen, Jeanet W Blom.
Abstract
Transitions between disability states in older people occur frequently. This study investigated predictors of disability transitions in the oldest old and was performed in the Leiden 85-plus study, a population-based prospective cohort study among 597 participants aged 85 years. At baseline (age 85 years), data on sociodemographic characteristics and chronic diseases were obtained. Disabilities in basic activities of daily living (BADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) were measured annually for 5 years with the Groningen Activities Restriction Scale (GARS). Mortality data were obtained. A statistical multi-state model was used to assess the risks of transitions between no disabilities, IADL disability, BADL disability, and death. At baseline, 299 participants (50.0 %) were disabled in IADL only, and 155 participants (26.0 %) were disabled in both BADL and IADL. During 5-year follow-up, 374 participants (62.6 %) made >1 transition between disability states, mostly deterioration in disability. Males had a lower risk of deterioration [hazard ratio (HR), 0.75 (95 % CI, 0.58-0.96)] compared to females. No gender differences were observed for improvement [HR, 0.64 (95 % CI, 0.37-1.11)]. Participants with depressive symptoms were less likely to improve [HR, 0.50 (95 % CI, 0.28-0.87)]. Participants with depressive symptoms [HR, 1.46 (95 % CI, 1.12-1.91)], >1 chronic disease [HR, 1.60 (95 % CI, 1.27-2.01)], and with cognitive impairment [HR, 1.60 (95 % CI, 1.20-2.13)] had the highest risk of deteriorating. Disability is a dynamic process in the oldest old. Deterioration is more common than improvement. Older men are less likely to deteriorate than women. The presence of depressive symptoms, chronic disease, and cognitive impairment predicts deterioration.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2013 PMID: 23990275 PMCID: PMC3889888 DOI: 10.1007/s11357-013-9574-3
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Age (Dordr) ISSN: 0161-9152
Fig. 1Multi-state representation of the stages of disability. The boxes represent the four stages. The solid arrows represent the observed transitions; the dotted arrow represents a possible transition that was very rare in this study population and was therefore excluded from the multi-state model
Baseline characteristics of the participants at age 85 years
|
| |
|---|---|
| Sociodemographic | |
| Men | 202 (33.8) |
| Institutionalized | 107 (17.9) |
| Low income (<750 euro monthly) | 295 (49.3) |
| Low education level (6 years of primary school) | 207 (34.6) |
| General health | |
| Depressive symptoms (GDS-15 ≥4 pts) | 118 (23.6) |
| Cognitive impairment (MMSE <24 pts) | 183 (30.7) |
| Chronic diseases | |
| ≥1 chronic disease | 414 (69.1) |
| Cancer | 104 (17.4) |
| Myocardial infarction | 63 (10.6) |
| Stroke | 61 (10.2) |
| Diabetes | 86 (14.4) |
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 70 (11.7) |
| Parkinson's disease | 15 (2.5) |
| Arthritis | 193 (32.3) |
| History of hip fracture | 38 (6.4) |
Data are numbers and percentages. Chronic diseases included cancer, myocardial infarction, stroke, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Parkinson's disease, arthritis, and history of hip fracture
GDS-15 Geriatric Depression Scale 15 items, MMSE Mini-Mental State Examination
Fig. 2Estimated transition probabilities of the three states of disability and death during follow-up depending on the disability state at baseline (age 85): a no disability at baseline, b IADL disability at baseline, and c BADL disability at baseline
Multivariate prediction of improvement in disability state, deterioration in disability state, and death by health characteristics over the 5-year follow-up
| Relative risk of transition to improved disability state | Relative risk of transition to deteriorated disability state | Relative risk of transition to death | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95 % CI) |
| HR (95 % CI) |
| HR (95 % CI) |
| |
| Men (ref: women) | 0.64 (0.37–1.11) | 0.11 | 0.75 (0.58–0.96) | 0.03 | 2.10 (1.44–3.07) | <0.01 |
| Low income (<750 euro monthly) (ref: >750 euro monthly) | 1.07 (0.67–1.71) | 0.77 | 1.10 (0.87–1.39) | 0.41 | 0.97 (0.67–1.41) | 0.88 |
| Low education level (6 years of primary school) (ref: >primary school) | 1.21 (0.74–1.98) | 0.45 | 0.97 (0.77–1.23) | 0.82 | 0.94 (0.64–1.38) | 0.76 |
| Living alone (ref: living with someone) | 1.48 (0.92–2.39) | 0.11 | 1.13 (0.88–1.45) | 0.32 | 0.94 (0.64–1.38) | 0.73 |
| Chronic disease (ref: no chronic disease) | 0.76 (0.47–1.24) | 0.27 | 1.60 (1.27–2.01) | <0.01 | 1.48 (0.96–2.26) | 0.07 |
| Cognitive impairment (MMSE <24 pts) (ref: MMSE ≥24) | 0.62 (0.36–1.09) | 0.10 | 1.60 (1.20–2.13) | <0.01 | 1.64 (1.12–2.39) | 0.01 |
| Depressive symptoms (GDS-15 ≥4 pts) (ref: GDS <4) | 0.50 (0.28–0.87) | 0.01 | 1.46 (1.12–1.91) | <0.01 | 1.09 (0.75–1.58) | 0.64 |
Hazard ratios were estimated with a multistate Cox model. Sex, income, education level, living alone, and presence of chronic diseases were included as fixed variables. Cognitive function and depressive symptoms were included as time-dependent variables. Chronic diseases included cancer, myocardial infarction, stroke, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Parkinson's disease, and history of hip fracture
CI confidence interval, GDS-15 Geriatric Depression Scale 15 items, MMSE Mini-Mental State Examination, HR hazard ratio
The prevalence of disability on the individual BADL and IADL items of the GARS at age 85 (n = 597)
| Item | Total population | No disability | IADL disabilitya | BADL disabilitya |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
| |
| BADL: unable to | ||||
| (1) Dress yourself | 103 (17.3) | 0 | 0 | 103 (66.5) |
| (2) Get in and out of bed | 53 (8.9) | 0 | 0 | 53 (34.2) |
| (3) Stand up from sitting in a chair | 53 (8.9) | 0 | 0 | 53 (54.2) |
| (4) Wash face and hands | 45 (7.5) | 0 | 0 | 45 (29.0) |
| (5) Wash and dry whole body | 124 (20.8) | 0 | 0 | 124 (80.0) |
| (6) Go to the toilet | 60 (10.1) | 0 | 0 | 60 (38.7) |
| (7) Eat and drink | 21 (3.5) | 0 | 0 | 21 (13.5) |
| (8) Get around in the house | 67 (11.2) | 0 | 0 | 67 (43.2) |
| (12) Prepare breakfast | 64 (10.7) | 0 | 0 | 64 (41.3) |
| IADL: unable to | ||||
| (9) Go up and down the stairs | 225 (37.7) | 0 | 89 (29.8) | 136 (87.7) |
| (10) Walk outdoors | 171 (28.6) | 0 | 50 (16.7) | 121 (78.1) |
| (11) Take care of your feet and toenails | 340 (57.0) | 0 | 195 (65.2) | 145 (93.5) |
| (13) Prepare dinner | 209 (35.0) | 0 | 80 (26.8) | 129 (83.2) |
| (14) Light household activities | 127 (21.3) | 0 | 28 (9.4) | 99 (63.9) |
| (15) Heavy household activities | 350 (58.6) | 0 | 200 (66.9) | 150 (96.8) |
| (16) Wash and iron clothes | 223 (37.4) | 0 | 94 (31.4) | 129 (83.2) |
| (17) Make the beds | 207 (34.7) | 0 | 80 (26.8) | 127 (81.9) |
| (18) Groceries | 231 (38.7) | 0 | 105 (35.1) | 126 (81.3) |
Data represent numbers (percent)
aDisability in BADL or IADL was considered present when a participant responded “Cannot or only with help from others” on any BADL or IADL item, respectively