Probabilistic ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in southwestern catchments of the Bohai Sea, China.

A probability risk assessment was undertaken to study the individual and combined ecological risks induced by six polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) both in surface water and sediment from southwestern catchments of the Bohai Sea, China. The actual measured PAH concentrations in water and sediment were compared with toxicity effect data (the 10th percentile of predicted no effect concentration) to calculate the risk quotients (RQs) for an individual PAH. The equilibrium partitioning method was applied to estimate toxicity data in sediment. A method based on the equivalent concentration concept was proposed and applied to assess the combined ecological risk of multiple PAHs. Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrap technique were utilized to calculate the distribution of RQs and associated uncertainties. The ecological safety level was defined by RQ ≤ 1. Results indicated that both in water and sediment, fluoranthene and pyrene posed the highest risks, whereas acenaphthene and fluorene posed negligible risks. Naphthalene and phenanthrene did not pose risks to the ecological community in surface water but had relatively higher risks in sediment. The median RQs of combined risk in surface water and sediment were 0.934 and 2.42, and the probabilities of RQ > 1 were up to 0.473 and 0.599, respectively, which were much higher than the individual compound acting alone. The risk level in sediment was quite higher than in surface water probably owing to the non-equilibrium distribution between two phases, which suggested that local authorities should focus more on sediment quality management.