| Literature DB >> 23866305 |
Léon Nshimyumukiza1, Julie Duplantie, Mathieu Gagnon, Xavier Douville, Diane Fournier, Carmen Lindsay, Marc Parent, Alain Milot, Yves Giguère, Christian Gagné, François Rousseau, Daniel Reinharz.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common form of heart arrhythmia and a leading cause of stroke and systemic embolism. Chronic anticoagulation is recommended for preventing those complications. Our study aimed to compare the cost/utility (CU) of three main anticoagulation options: 1) standard warfarin dosing (SD-W) 2) warfarin dosage under the guidance of CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotyping (GT-W) and 3) dabigatran 150 mg twice a day.Entities:
Year: 2013 PMID: 23866305 PMCID: PMC3765702 DOI: 10.1186/1477-9560-11-14
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Thromb J ISSN: 1477-9560
Figure 1Markov state transition model.
Figure 2Diagram of Markov health states transition.
Model input parameters
| Percentage of INR time in therapeutic range (2-3) in warfarin usual standard dosing | 64% | 55-69% | Beta | [ | |||
| Proportion of INR time range below therapeutic range (<2) | 54% | 45-60% | [ | ||||
| Percentage of increasing of TTR by warfarin pharmacogenetic guided dosing | 7.3% | 0-30% | [ | ||||
| Risk of major bleedings INR in therapeutic range | 1.4% | 0.9-2.3% | [ | ||||
| Relative risk of major bleedings INR above therapeutic range | 1 | - | Fixed (reference) | ||||
| Relative risk of major bleedings INR below therapeutic range | 4.7 | 3.57-10 | Log-normal | ||||
| Relative risk of major hemorrhagic event dabigatran 150 mg vs warfarin | 0.93 | 0.81-1.07 | [ | ||||
| Major hemorrhagic events (warfarin treatment) | Proportion intracranial | 42% | 20-45% | Beta | [ | ||
| Proportion extracranial | 58% | 55-80% | [ | ||||
| Proportion major hemorrhagic events Dabigatran 150 mg | % Intracranial | 12.6% | 6.3-13.4% | [ | |||
| % Extracranial | 90.4% | 86.6-93.7 | |||||
| Risk of major thromboembolic events INR in therapeutic range | 2.4% | 1.2-4.9 | [ | ||||
| Relative risk of major thromboembolic events INR above therapeutic range | 3.5 | 2.8-44 | Log normal | | |||
| Relative risk of major thromboembolic events INR below therapeutic range | 0.9 | 0.6-1.3 | |||||
| Relative risk of major thromboembolic events dabigatran 150 vs warfarin | Stroke and systemic embolism | 0.66 | 0.53-0.82 | [ | |||
| MI | 1.38 | 1-1.91 | |||||
| PE | 1.61 | 0.76-3.42 | |||||
| Major thromboembolic events (warfarin treatment) | % Stroke | 52.5% | | Fixed | [ | ||
| % Myocardial infarctus (MI) | 12.5% | ||||||
| % Pulmonary embolism (PE) | 30% | ||||||
| % Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) | 5% | ||||||
| Complications | Major hemorrhagic event | intracranial | No deficit | 8% | | [ | |
| Mild deficit | 16% | | | ||||
| Severe deficit | 34% | | | ||||
| Death | 42% (first month) | | | ||||
| Extracranial | | 2% | | [ | |||
| Major thromboembolismevent | Stroke | Month 1 : 8.3% | | [ | |||
| Death | Months 2 and 3 : 5.6% per month | | |||||
| Severe deficit | 40.2% | | |||||
| Mild deficit | 42.5% | | |||||
| No deficit | 9.1% | | |||||
| Death PE | 12% | | [ | ||||
| Death DVT | 6% | | [ | ||||
| Death IM | 7% | | [ | ||||
| Treatment discontinuation after a major event | Intracranial hemorrhage | 100% during the entire period | | [ | |||
| Extracranial hemorrhage | 100% during 30 days | | |||||
| Drug costs | Dabigatran 150 mg | 3.20/day | 1-5 | Gamma | [ | ||
| Warfarin 5 mg | 0.074/day | 0.03-0.1 | |||||
| LMWH | 27.90/5 days | - | Fixed | ||||
| INR monitoring (first year) | SD-W | 8.06/month | 5-12 | Gamma | [ | ||
| GT-W | 5/month | 2-8 | Assumption | ||||
| INR monitoring (subsequent years) | 4.03/month | 2-6 | Assumption | ||||
| Genetic tests (CYP2C9 and VKORC1) | 615 | 100-1000 | [ | ||||
| One-time event treatment costs | Ischemic stroke, no deficit | 845 | 500-100 | [ | |||
| Ischemic stroke, mild deficit | 23772 | 15000-40000 | [ | ||||
| Ischemic stroke, severe deficit | 42620 | 30000-60000 | [ | ||||
| Intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), non deficit | 1067 | 25000-50000 | [ | ||||
| ICH mild deficit | 21218 | 15000-25000 | [ | ||||
| ICH severe deficit | 36451 | 25000-50000 | [ | ||||
| Subdural hematoma | 31942 | 20000-45000 | [ | ||||
| Extra cranial hemorrhage | 8146 | 5000-12000 | [ | ||||
| DVT | 2576 | 1500-4000 | [ | ||||
| PE | 8799 | 5000-9000 | [ | ||||
| MI | 7177 | 5000-15000 | [ | ||||
| Post-event cost | Severe disability stroke/ICH | 6259/month | 3000-10000 | [ | |||
| Mild disability stroke/ICH | 1855/month | 1000-3000 | |||||
| Warfarin no event | 0.95 | 0.95-0.98 | Beta | [ | |||
| Dabigatran no event | 0.95 | 0.95-0.98 | [ | ||||
| Major bleeding | ICH | No deficit | 0.51 | 0.15-0.60 | [ | ||
| Mild deficit | 0.75 | 0.70-0.90 | |||||
| Severe deficit | 0.95 | 0.90-0.95 | |||||
| Extracranial | 0.80 | 0.75-0.85 | |||||
| Stroke | No deficit | 0.95 | 0.90-0.95 | [ | |||
| | Minor | 0.75 | 0.70-0.90 | ||||
| | Severe | 0.39 | 0.15-0.50 | ||||
| MI | 0.84 | 0.80-0.90 | [ | ||||
| PE | 0.76 | 0.70-0.90 | [ | ||||
| DVT | 0.84 | 0.80-0.90 | [ | ||||
Base case results
| Standard warfarin* dosage | 3.21 | 2.12 | 7 289 | 3.5368 | 2061 | | | |
| Pharmacogenetic oriented warfarin dosage | 3.09 | 2.126 | 7 749 | 3.5453 | 2186 | 460 | 0.0085 | Dominated |
| Dabigatran 150 mg BID | 2.872 | 1.813 | 8 494 | 3.7897 | 2241 | 745 | 0.2444 | 4 765 |
*Less costly option.
One-way Sensitivity analysis results
| 76.8% of Patient TTR with warfarin pharmacogenetic guided dosing | Warfarin standard | 7289 | | 3,5358 | | |
| Warfarin genetic testing | 7611 | 322 | 3,6348 | 0,099 | 3253 | |
| Dabigatran 150 | 8494 | 883 | 3,7897 | 0,1549 | 5700 | |
| RR major hemorragic event dabigatran 150 vs warfarin = 0,81 | warfarin standard | 7289 | | 3,5358 | | |
| warfarin genetic testing | 7749 | 460 | 3,5453 | 0,0085 | Dominated | |
| Dabigatran 150 | 8142 | 393 | 3,8667 | 0,3214 | 2586 | |
| RR major hemorragic event dabigatran 150 vs warfarin = 1,07 | warfarin standard | 7289 | | 3,5358 | | |
| warfarin genetic testing | 7749 | 460 | 3,5453 | 0,0085 | Dominated | |
| Dabigatran 150 | 8879 | 1130 | 3,695 | 0,1497 | 9987 | |
| RR stroke dabigatran 150 VS warfarin = 0,82 | warfarin standard | 7289 | | 3,5358 | | |
| warfarin genetic testing | 7749 | 460 | 3,5453 | 0,0085 | Dominated | |
| Dabigatran 150 | 8765 | 1016 | 3,708 | 0,1627 | 8570 | |
| RR stroke dabigatran 150 VS warfarin = 0,53 | warfarin standard | 7289 | | 3,5358 | | |
| warfarin genetic testing | 7749 | 460 | 3,5453 | 0,0085 | Dominated | |
| Dabigatran 150 | 8298 | 549 | 3,8113 | 0,2755 | 3660 | |
| Cost genetic tests = CAD$ 100 | warfarin standard | 7289 | | 3,5368 | | |
| warfarin genetic testing | 7330 | 41 | 3.5453 | 0,0085 | Dominated | |
| dabigatran 150 | 8494 | 1164 | 3.7897 | 0,2444 | 4765 | |
| Cost genetic tests = CAD$ 1000 | warfarin standard | 7289 | | 3,5368 | | |
| warfarin genetic testing | 8050 | 41 | 3.5453 | 0,0085 | Dominated | |
| dabigatran 150 | 8494 | 1164 | 3.7897 | 0,2444 | 4765 | |
| Day cost of dabigatran 150 = 1CAD$ | Dabigatran 150 | 5217 | | 3.7897 | | |
| Warfarin standard | 7289 | 2072 | 3.5368 | −0,2444 | Dominated | |
| Warfarin genetic testing | 7749 | 460 | 3.5453 | −0,0085 | Dominated | |
| Day cost of dabigatran 150 = 5$ | Warfarin standard | 7289 | | 3,5368 | | |
| Warfarin genetic testing | 7749 | 460 | 3.5453 | 0,0085 | Dominated | |
| Dabigatran 150 mg | 11182 | 1164 | 3.7897 | 0,2444 | 15393 | |
| Utility score dabigatran without event =0,98 | warfarin standard | 7289 | | 3,5358 | | |
| | warfarin genetic testing | 7749 | 460 | 3,5453 | 0,0085 | Dominated |
| Dabigatran 150 | 8494 | 745 | 3,902 | 0,3567 | 3290 |
Figure 3Cost-utility acceptability curves. Blue: The curve represents the probability of dabigatran to be cost-effective compared to warfarin standard dosing at various ceiling ratios thresholds. Red: The curve represents the probability of warfarin pharmacogenetic guided dosing to be cost-effective compared to warfarin standard dosing at various ceiling ratios thresholds.