Persistence of physical activity in middle age: a nonlinear dynamic panel approach.

No prior investigation has considered the effects of state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity on the relationship between regular physical activity (RPA) and latent health stock (LHS). Accounting for state dependence corrects the possible overestimation of the impact of socioeconomic factors. We estimated the degree of the state dependence of RPA and LHS among middle-aged Japanese workers. The 5 years' longitudinal data used in this study were taken from the Longitudinal Survey of Middle and Elderly Persons. Individual heterogeneity was found for both RPA and LHS, and the dynamic random-effects probit model provided the best specification. A smoking habit, low educational attainment, longer work hours, and longer commuting time had negative effects on RPA participation. RPA had positive effects on LHS, taking into consideration the possibility of confounding with other lifestyle variables. The degree of state dependence of LHS was positive and significant. Increasing the intensity of RPA had positive effects on LHS and caused individuals with RPA to exhibit greater persistence of LHS compared to individuals without RPA. This result implies that policy interventions that promote RPA, such as smoking cessation, have lasting consequences. We concluded that smoking cessation is an important health policy to increase both the participation in RPA and LHS.