| Literature DB >> 23839062 |
Juhui Kim1, Hyunjung Chung, Joonil Cho, Kisun Yoon.
Abstract
The aim of this study was to model the growth of nalidixic acid-resistant E. coli O157:H7 (E. coli O157:H7NR) in blanched spinach and to evaluate model performance with an independent set of data for interpolation (8.5, 13, 15 and 27 °C) and for extrapolation (broth and fresh-cut iceberg lettuce) using the ratio method and the acceptable prediction zone method. The lag time (LT), specific growth rate (SGR) and maximum population density (MPD) obtained from each primary model were modeled as a function of temperature (7, 10, 17, 24, 30, and 36 °C) using Davey, square root, and polynomial models, respectively. At 7 °C, the populations of E. coli O157:H7NR increased in tryptic soy broth with nalidixic acid (TSBN), blanched spinach and fresh-cut iceberg lettuce, while the populations of E. coli O157:H7 decreased in TSB after 118 h of LT, indicating the risk of nalidixic acid-resistant strain of E. coli O157:H7 contaminated in ready-to-eat produce at refrigerated temperature. When the LT and SGR models of blanched spinach was extended to iceberg lettuce, all relative errors (percentage of RE = 100%) were inside the acceptable prediction zone and had an acceptable Bf and Af values. Thus, it was concluded that developed secondary models for E. coli O157:H7NR in blanched spinach were suitable for use in making predictions for fresh cut iceberg lettuce, but not for static TSBN in this work.Entities:
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Year: 2013 PMID: 23839062 PMCID: PMC3734463 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph10072857
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health ISSN: 1660-4601 Impact factor: 3.390
Figure 1Representative primary growth model for E. coli O157:H7NR in blanched spinach and fresh cut iceberg lettuce stored at (A) 24 and (B) 30°C.
Growth kinetics of primary models for a mixture of E. coli O157:H7NR in blanched spinach and fresh-cut iceberg lettuce.
| Temperature (°C) | LT x | SGR y | MPD z | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spinach | Lettuce | Spinach | Lettuce | Spinach | Lettuce | ||||||||
| Mean | SE | Mean | SE | Mean | SE | Mean | SE | Mean | SE | Mean | SE | ||
| 7 | 63.36 | 1.67 | 52.8 | 0.80 | 0.004 | 0.00 | 0.004 | 0.04 | 7.20 | 0.02 | 7.14 | 0.06 | |
| 10 | 28.32 | 0.26 | 40.08 | 0.06 | 0.005 | 0.00 | 0.005 | 0.03 | 7.31 | 0.25 | 7.23 | 0.20 | |
| 17 | 10.80 | 0.87 | 8.88 | 0.09 | 0.006 | 0.00 | 0.008 | 0.00 | 7.81 | 0.03 | 8.04 | 0.02 | |
| 24 | 3.60 | 0.13 | 4.28 | 0.21 | 0.019 | 0.01 | 0.015 | 0.05 | 8.06 | 0.04 | 8.18 | 0.08 | |
| 30 | 2.64 | 0.05 | 2.64 | 0.34 | 0.049 | 0.00 | 0.051 | 0.00 | 8.04 | 0.03 | 8.27 | 0.13 | |
| 36 | 2.40 | 0.19 | 2.40 | 0.02 | 0.110 | 0.02 | 0.092 | 0.02 | 8.80 | 0.14 | 8.41 | 0.17 | |
LT: Lag time (h); y SGR: Specific growth rate (log CFU/h); z MPD: Maximum population density (log).
Figure 2Secondary LT and SGR models of a mixture of E. coli O157:H7NR in blanched spinach and fresh-cut iceberg lettuce as a function of temperature (7 to 36 °C). (A) Spinach-LT. (B) Spinach-SGR. (C) Spinach-MPD. (D) Lettuce-LT. (E) Lettuce-SGR. (F) Lettuce-MPD. ○ Dependent data □ Independent data.
Performance of secondary growth models for a mixture of E. coli O157:H7NT in blanched spinach and fresh-cut iceberg lettuce for interpolation.
| Dataset | Model | B | MRE b | A | MARE d | %RE e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spinach | LT f | 1.01 | 0.01 | 1.16 | 0.14 | 90 |
| SGR g | 0.89 | −0.13 | 1.15 | 0.12 | 100 | |
| MPD h | 0.97 | −0.02 | 1.04 | 0.03 | 100 | |
| Lettuce | LT i | 0.95 | 0.01 | 1.13 | 0.13 | 100 |
| SGR j | 0.96 | −0.02 | 1.09 | 0.08 | 100 | |
| MPD k | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.02 | 0.02 | 100 |
a B: bias factor; b MRE: median relative error; c A: Accuracy factor; d MARE: mean absolute relative error; e %RE: percentage of relative error that is in an acceptable prediction zone from −30% to 15% for SGR, −60 to 0% for LT, and −80 to 40% for MPD; f LT = 2.00 + (−93.55/T) + (3,655.2/T2); g SGR = {0.0054(T − 1.177)}2; h MPD = 6.187 + 0.1377T − 0.001686T2; i LT = −0.12 + (−17.50/T) + (2,383.68/T2); j SGR = {0.0053(T − 1.263)}2; k MPD = 7.148 + 0.0350T + 0.0000633T2.
Figure 3Acceptable prediction zone analysis of the goodness of fit of the secondary model for lag time (LT) and specific growth rate (SGR). RE values are mean (n=3). (A) Spinach-LT. (B) Spinach-SGR. (C) Lettuce-LT. (D) Lettuce-SGR.
Performance of secondary growth models for a mixture of E. coli O157:H7NT in blanched spinach for extrapolation.
| Dataset | Model | B | MRE b | A | MARE d | % RE e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lettuce | LT f | 1.01 | 0.03 | 1.12 | 0.12 | 100 |
| SGR g | 0.95 | −3.04 | 1.09 | 0.08 | 100 | |
| Broth | LT | 0.77 | −0.37 | 1.40 | 0.43 | 33 |
| SGR | 0.69 | −24.68 | 1.51 | 0.31 | 50 |
a B: Bias factor; b MRE: Median relative error; c A: Accuracy factor; d MARE: Mean absolute relative error; e %RE: The percentage of relative error that is in an acceptable prediction zone from −30% to 15% for SGR and −60 to 30% for LT; f LT: Lag time (h); g SGR: Specific growth rate (log(CFU/h)).
Figure 4Relative error (RE) plots with an acceptable prediction zone analysis of lag time (LT) and specific growth rate (SGR) data used in evaluation of extrapolation. (A) LT. (B) SGR.
Figure 5Comparison of growth curves of a mixture of two E. coli O157:H7NR strains (NCTC12079NR and ATCC35150NR) and E. coli O157:H7NR strain (NCTC12079NR) and E. coli O157:H7 parent strain in broth at 36 °C.