Development and validation of a predictive model for Listeria monocytogenes Scott A as a function of temperature, pH, and commercial mixture of potassium lactate and sodium diacetate.

The objective of this study was to develop and validate secondary models that can predict growth parameters of L. monocytogenes Scott A as a function of concentrations (0-3%) of a commercial potassium lactate (PL) and sodium diacetate (SDA) mixture, pH (5.5-7.0), and temperature (4-37oC). A total of 120 growth curves were fitted to the Baranyi primary model that directly estimates lag time (LT) and specific growth rate (SGR). The effects of the variables on L. monocytogenes Scott A growth kinetics were modeled by response surface analysis using quadratic and cubic polynomial models of the natural logarithm transformation of both LT and SGR. Model performance was evaluated with dependent data and independent data using the prediction bias (Bf) and accuracy factors (Af) as well as the acceptable prediction zone method [percentage of relative errors (%RE)]. Comparison of predicted versus observed values of SGR indicated that the cubic model fits better than the quadratic model, particularly at 4 and 10oC. The Bf and Af for independent SGR were 1.00 and 1.08 for the cubic model and 1.08 and 1.16 for the quadratic model, respectively. For cubic and quadratic models, the %REs for the independent SGR data were 92.6 and 85.7, respectively. Both quadratic and cubic polynomial models for SGR and LT provided acceptable predictions of L. monocytogenes Scott A growth in the matrix of conditions described in the present study. Model performance can be more accurately evaluated with Bf and Af and % RE together.