Variation in breeding phenology provides insights into drivers of long-term population change in harbour seals.

Phenological trends provide important indicators of environmental change and population dynamics. However, the use of untested population-level measures can lead to incorrect conclusions about phenological trends, particularly when changes in population structure or density are ignored. We used individual-based estimates of birth date and lactation duration of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) to investigate energetic consequences of changes in pupping phenology. Using generalized linear mixed models, we first demonstrate annual variation in pupping phenology. Second, we show a negative relationship between lactation duration and the timing of pupping, indicating that females who pup early nurse their pups longer, thereby highlighting lactation duration as a useful proxy of female condition and resource availability. Third, individual-based data were used to derive a population-level proxy that demonstrated an advance in pupping date over the last 25 years, co-incident with a reduction in population abundance that resulted from fisheries-related shootings. These findings demonstrate that phenological studies examining the impacts of climate change on mammal populations must carefully control for changes in population density and highlight how joint investigations of phenological and demographic change provide insights into the drivers of population declines.