[Predictors of early retirement and focused assignment to medical rehabilitation].

Previous work and results from the project "Identification of a high-risk profile for early retirement" were presented. The project is being supported by the LVA-Württemberg (pension insurance for blue collar workers). In this project, a two-step screening process to determine prospective early retirees and provide specific assignment for medical rehabilitation is being developed and tested, with the goal of adhering better to the basic principle of "rehabilitation before retirement". The foundations for the solution proposed in the two-step screening are predictors of early retirement, with which prospective retirees can be detected early on. On the basis of a cohort study on environmental effects and frequency of illness during the period 1974-85, we have identified predictors for early retirement and premature death. Early retirees complained of health problems even years before retirement. In particular, they complained of shortness of breath and respiratory tract ailments, general impairment of physical performance, and ailments of the skeletal and motor apparatus. Data for persons who died prematurely after 1974 were largely consistent with those for early retirees. Most prominent in this case were complaints indicating coronary risk or angina pectoris, chronic bronchitis, and peripheral circulation problems. We evaluated the significantly increased health problems in the risk groups from the 1974 inquiries as indicators or predictors for early retirement. We utilized them for a questionnaire which was designed to determine the predictive risk profile for early retirement, and may be therefore suitable as a screening instrument for identifying prospective early retirees among currently employed insured persons (screening stage 1).