Spatial Epidemiology of HIV among Injection Drug Users in Tijuana, Mexico.

The northwest border city of Tijuana is Mexico's fifth largest and is experiencing burgeoning drug use and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemics. Since local geography influences disease risk, we explored the spatial distribution of HIV among injection drug users (IDUs). From 2006-2007, 1056 IDUs were recruited using respondent-driven sampling, and then followed for eighteen months. Participants underwent semi-annual surveys, mapping, and testing for HIV, tuberculosis, and syphilis. Using Average Nearest Neighbor and Getis-Ord Gi* statistics, locations where participants lived, worked, bought and injected drugs were compared with HIV status and environmental and behavioral factors. Median age was thirty-seven years; 85 percent were male. Females had higher HIV prevalence than males (10.2 percent vs. 3.4 percent; p=0.001). HIV cases at baseline (n=47) most strongly clustered by drug injection sites (Z-Score -6.173; p < 0.001), with a 16 km2 hotspot near the Mexico/U.S. border, encompassing the red-light district. Spatial correlates of HIV included syphilis infection, female gender, younger age, increased hours on the street per day, and higher number of injection partners. Almost all HIV seroconverters injected within a 2.5 block radius of each other immediately prior to seroconversion. Only history of syphilis infection and female gender were strongly associated with HIV in the area where incident cases injected. Directional trends suggested a largely static epidemic until July-December 2008, when HIV spread to the southeast, possibly related to intensified violence and policing that spiked in the latter half of 2008. While clustering allows for targeting interventions, the dynamic nature of epidemics suggests the importance of mobile treatment and harm reduction programs.