Joana Gomes1, Albertino Damasceno2, Carla Carrilho3, Vitória Lobo3, Hélder Lopes3, Tavares Madede3, Pius Pravinrai3, Carla Silva-Matos3, Domingos Diogo3, Ana Azevedo4, Nuno Lunet4. 1. Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Predictive Medicine and Public Health, University of Porto Medical School, Porto, Portugal; Institute of Public Health-University of Porto, Porto, Portugal. Electronic address: joanacostabgomes@hotmail.com. 2. Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Predictive Medicine and Public Health, University of Porto Medical School, Porto, Portugal; Faculty of Medicine, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique. 3. Faculty of Medicine, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique. 4. Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Predictive Medicine and Public Health, University of Porto Medical School, Porto, Portugal; Institute of Public Health-University of Porto, Porto, Portugal.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Identifying locale-specific patterns regarding the variation in stroke incidence throughout the year and with atmospheric temperature may be useful to the organization of stroke care, especially in low-resource settings. GOAL: We aimed to describe the variation in the incidence of stroke hospitalizations across seasons and with short-term temperature variation, in Maputo, Mozambique. METHODS: Between August 1, 2005, and July 31, 2006, we identified 651 stroke events in Maputo dwellers, according to the World Health Organization's STEPwise approach. The day of symptom onset was defined as the index date. We computed crude and adjusted (humidity, precipitation and temperature) incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with Poisson regression. RESULTS: Stroke incidence did not vary significantly with season (dry versus wet: crude IRR = .98, 95% CI: .84-1.15), atmospheric temperature at the index date, or average atmospheric temperature in the preceding 2 weeks. The incidence rates of stroke were approximately 30% higher when in the previous 10 days there was a decline in the minimum temperature greater than or equal to 3 °C between any 2 consecutive days (variation in minimum temperature -5.1 to -3.0 versus -2.3 to -.4, adjusted IRR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.09-1.57). No significant associations were observed according to the variation in maximum temperatures. CONCLUSIONS: Sudden declines in the minimum temperatures were associated with a higher incidence of stroke hospitalizations in Maputo. This provides important information for prediction of periods of higher hospital affluence because of stroke and to understand the mechanisms underlying the triggering of a stroke event.
BACKGROUND: Identifying locale-specific patterns regarding the variation in stroke incidence throughout the year and with atmospheric temperature may be useful to the organization of stroke care, especially in low-resource settings. GOAL: We aimed to describe the variation in the incidence of stroke hospitalizations across seasons and with short-term temperature variation, in Maputo, Mozambique. METHODS: Between August 1, 2005, and July 31, 2006, we identified 651 stroke events in Maputo dwellers, according to the World Health Organization's STEPwise approach. The day of symptom onset was defined as the index date. We computed crude and adjusted (humidity, precipitation and temperature) incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with Poisson regression. RESULTS:Stroke incidence did not vary significantly with season (dry versus wet: crude IRR = .98, 95% CI: .84-1.15), atmospheric temperature at the index date, or average atmospheric temperature in the preceding 2 weeks. The incidence rates of stroke were approximately 30% higher when in the previous 10 days there was a decline in the minimum temperature greater than or equal to 3 °C between any 2 consecutive days (variation in minimum temperature -5.1 to -3.0 versus -2.3 to -.4, adjusted IRR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.09-1.57). No significant associations were observed according to the variation in maximum temperatures. CONCLUSIONS:Sudden declines in the minimum temperatures were associated with a higher incidence of stroke hospitalizations in Maputo. This provides important information for prediction of periods of higher hospital affluence because of stroke and to understand the mechanisms underlying the triggering of a stroke event.
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