Linking source and effect: resuspended soil lead, air lead, and children's blood lead levels in Detroit, Michigan.

This study evaluates atmospheric concentrations of soil and Pb aerosols, and blood lead levels (BLLs) in 367839 children (ages 0-10) in Detroit, Michigan from 2001 to 2009 to test a hypothesized soil → air dust → child pathway of contemporary Pb risk. Atmospheric soil and Pb show near-identical seasonal properties that match seasonal variation in children's BLLs. Resuspended soil appears to be a significant underlying source of atmospheric Pb. A 1% increase in the amount of resuspended soil results in a 0.39% increase in the concentration of Pb in the atmosphere (95% CI, 0.28 to 0.50%). In turn, atmospheric Pb significantly explains age-dependent variation in child BLLs. Other things held equal, a change of 0.0069 μg/m(3) in atmospheric Pb increases BLL of a child 1 year of age by 10%, while approximately 3 times the concentration of Pb in air (0.023 μg/m(3)) is required to induce the same increase in BLL of a child 7 years of age. Similarly, a 0.0069 μg/m(3) change in air Pb increases the odds of a child <1 year of age having a BLL ≥ 5 μg/dL by a multiplicative factor of 1.32 (95% CI, 1.26 to 1.37). Overall, the resuspension of Pb contaminated soil explains observed seasonal variation in child BLLs.