Adaptive management for competing forest goods and services under climate change.

Developing adaptive forest management strategies is essential to maintain the provisioning of forest goods and services (FGS) under future climate change. We assessed how climate change and forest management affect forest development and FGS for a diverse case-study landscape in Central Europe. Using a process-based forest model (LandClim) we simulated forest dynamics and FGS under a range of climate change and management scenarios in the Black Forest, Germany, which is shaped by various management practices. We focused on the interdependencies between timber production and forest diversity, the most valued FGS in this region. We found that the conversion to more drought-adapted forest types is required to prevent climate change-induced forest dieback and that this conversion must be the target of any adaptive management, especially in areas where monocultures of drought-sensitive Norway spruce (Picea abies) were promoted in the past. Forest conversion takes up to 120 years, however, with past and future adaptive management being the key drivers of timber and forest diversity provision. The conversion of drought-sensitive conifer monocultures maintains timber production in the short-term and enhances a range of forest diversity indices. Using uneven-aged forest management that targets a drought-adapted, diverse, and resilient species mixture, high species diversity can be combined with timber production in the long term. Yet, the promotion of mature-stand attributes requires management restrictions. Selecting future adaptive management options thus implies the consideration of trade-offs between forest resource use and environmental objectives, but also the exploitation of synergies between FGS that occur during forest conversion. Lastly, the large impact of past management practices on the spatial heterogeneity of forest dynamics underpins the need to assess FGS provisioning at the landscape scale.