Temporal prediction errors modulate cingulate-insular coupling.

Prediction error (i.e., the difference between the expected and the actual event's outcome) mediates adaptive behavior. Activity in the anterior mid-cingulate cortex (aMCC) and in the anterior insula (aINS) is associated with the commission of prediction errors under uncertainty. We propose a dynamic causal model of effective connectivity (i.e., neuronal coupling) between the aMCC, the aINS, and the striatum in which the task context drives activity in the aINS and the temporal prediction errors modulate extrinsic cingulate-insular connections. With functional magnetic resonance imaging, we scanned 15 participants when they performed a temporal prediction task. They observed visual animations and predicted when a stationary ball began moving after being contacted by another moving ball. To induced uncertainty-driven prediction errors, we introduced spatial gaps and temporal delays between the balls. Classical and Bayesian fMRI analyses provided evidence to support that the aMCC-aINS system along with the striatum not only responds when humans predict whether a dynamic event occurs but also when it occurs. Our results reveal that the insula is the entry port of a three-region pathway involved in the processing of temporal predictions. Moreover, prediction errors rather than attentional demands, task difficulty, or task duration exert an influence in the aMCC-aINS system. Prediction errors debilitate the effect of the aMCC on the aINS. Finally, our computational model provides a way forward to characterize the physiological parallel of temporal prediction errors elicited in dynamic tasks.