Interpretation of changes in circulating tumor cell counts.

The presence of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) in the blood of cancer patients may guide the use of therapy. We investigated how to evaluate a reduction in the number of CTCs after administration of therapy. CTCs were enumerated with the CellSearch system in 111 metastatic breast and 185 metastatic prostate cancer patients before start of a new line of chemotherapy and after initiation of therapy. Different means to express changes in CTC counts were evaluated with respect to overall survival (OS). A static CTC cutoff is the best method to determine whether a therapy is effective. This is exemplified by the highest Cox hazard ratio of 2.1 for OS; three methods to express relative differences performed worse. A lookup table is provided from which the significance of a change in CTCs can be derived. The aim of therapy should be the elimination of all CTCs. A period of 10 to 12 weeks of therapy is needed to reach the treatment effect on CTCs.