Admission criteria to Saudi medical schools. Which is the best predictor for successful achievement?

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship between current pre-admission criteria and medical student's grade point average (GPA) at the end of year 6 in 3 medical schools in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
METHODS: We conducted this observational analytical study at 3 government medical schools in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia between January 2011 and February 2012. High school grades, achievement test (Tahsili test) scores, aptitude test (Qudraat tests) scores, Mathematics, and English grades in the high school were used to predict medical student's GPA at the end of year 6. The criterion variable was student's cumulative GPA at the end of year 6. Correlation between pre-admission variables and GPA was calculated using Pearson's correlation, and multiple regression analyses. The Institutional review board and ethical committee at Taif Medical College approved the study.
RESULTS: We included 727 students in this study from the chosen medical schools. A significant positive correlation was observed among all pre-admission variables and GPA. Inclusion of all 5 sets in multiple regression analyses revealed that the achievement test, English grade in the high school, high school grade and aptitude test (Qudraat tests) were statistically predictive of GPA. A 20.8% variance in the GPA can be accounted for by the pre-admission criteria.
CONCLUSION: Multiple pre-admission factors predict medical students GPA. Achievement test is the most important predictor. High school grades in English emerged as an independent predictor. Medical schools should give more attention to these predictors during admissions.