Estimation of radiation risk from screening mammography: recent trends and comparison with expected benefits.

On the basis of recent epidemiologic studies, the National Institutes of Health in 1985 provided a new estimate for radiation risk to the breast that employed a relative risk model and acknowledged greater dependence on age at exposure. Lifetime risks from a single mammogram may be calculated from this estimate and are lower than those based on the previous 1977 National Cancer Institute estimate. Possible years of life expectancy lost from annual mammography beginning at age 40 years may also be calculated and are negligible compared with estimates for years of life expectancy gained from such screening.