Drinking consequence types in the first college semester differentially predict drinking the following year.

The objectives of the present study were to examine the utility of distinguishing among negative consequence types when seeking to predict drinking later in college, to understand which consequences in particular were associated with future drinking, and to determine the direction of those associations. We also examined whether there were differences in the types of drinking outcomes (quantity, frequency, binge) predicted by unique consequences. Finally, we tested whether the link between consequences and future drinking was different for men versus for women. Incoming first year college students (n=997; 65% female) completed an online assessment in September of the first college year, and again at the same time the following year. Results of structural equation model tests offered support for the utility of distinguishing among different consequence types, as specific consequences experienced during the first semester of college were associated differently with drinking at the beginning of the second school year. Gender differences also were observed. For both men and women, social consequences were associated with increases in drinking over time. Blackout drinking also evidenced prospective prediction, but differentially for men and women. For men, these consequences were associated with later increases in drinking, whereas for women, they were associated with a diminution in drinking the next year. For men, only consequences associated with self-care (impairment in physical activity, physical appearance, less time to pursue recreation) predicted decreases in drinking at Year 2. Prediction was generally similar across drinking outcomes. Results suggest that whether negative consequences result in downward titration, escalation, or no change at all in later drinking depends on the type of consequence experienced, and who experiences it.