Reducing young driver crash casualties in Great Britain - use of routine police crash data to estimate the potential benefits of graduated driver licensing.

Crashes involving young drivers (YD) cause significant morbidity and mortality in Great Britain (GB). Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) is used in some countries to address this. This study assessed potential casualty and cost savings of possible GDL programmes in GB. Police road crash data were analysed to identify YD crashes at night or while carrying passengers. These data were then used to estimate the potential effects of GDL. 314,561 casualties and 3469 fatalities occurred in YD crashes. 25.1% of YD crashes occurred between 9 pm and 6 am and 24.4% occurred with a 15- to 24-year old passenger in the car. A 'strict' form of GDL in GB (night time restriction 9 pm-6 am, no 15-24 year old passengers) with 50% compliance would prevent 114 deaths and 872 serious casualties each year. The estimated value of prevention is £424M pa. A 'less strict' form of GDL (night time restriction 10 pm-5 am, maximum of one 15-19 year old passenger) with 50% compliance would prevent 81 deaths and 538 serious injuries. The estimated value of prevention is £273M pa. Implementing GDL in GB could save significant numbers of lives. Public health organisations have a duty to advocate for such legislation.