A construction method to study the role of incidence in the adaptive dynamics of pathogens with direct and environmental transmission.

We study the adaptive dynamics of virulence of a pathogen transmitted both via direct contacts between hosts and via free pathogens that survive in the environment. The model is very flexible with a number of trade-off functions linking virulence to other pathogen-related parameters and with two incidence functions that describe the contact rates between hosts and between a host and free pathogens. Instead of making a priori particular assumptions about the shapes of these functions, we introduce a construction method to create specific pairs of incidence functions such that the model becomes an optimization model. Unfolding the optimization model leads to coexistence of pathogen strains and evolutionary branching of virulence. The construction method is applicable to a wide range of eco-evolutionary models.