Emergence of a convex trade-off between transmission and virulence.

Most models of virulence evolution assume that a parasite cannot raise its transmission rate without causing more harm to its host. However, the existence of such trade-off relationships has recently been challenged. Here, we study how a trade-off can emerge from a model that explicitly incorporates within-host dynamics. We find that the existence and the convexity of the trade-off are robust, which implies a definite level of evolutionarily stable virulence (ESV) for the parasite. However, we also show that the dependence of the ESV on parameter values may be very strong. One possible consequence of this sensitivity is that relationships between transmission and virulence observed across populations need not conform to the patterns expected on the basis of a common (fixed) trade-off. We discuss possible experiments and implications of our results for the development of virulence management strategies.