Seasonal stress drives predictable changes in inbreeding depression in field-tested captive populations of Drosophila melanogaster.

Recent meta-analyses conducted across a broad range of taxa have demonstrated a strong linear relationship between the change in magnitude of inbreeding depression under stress and stress level, measured as fitness loss in outbred individuals. This suggests that a general underlying response may link stress and inbreeding depression. However, this relationship is based primarily on laboratory data, and it is unknown whether natural environments with multiple stressors and fluctuating stress levels alter how stress affects inbreeding depression. To test whether the same pattern persists in the field, we investigated the effect of seasonal variation on stress level and inbreeding depression in a 3-year field study measuring the productivity of captive populations of inbred and outbred Drosophila melanogaster. We found cold winter temperatures were most stressful and induced the greatest inbreeding depression. Furthermore, these data, collected under natural field conditions, conformed to the same predictive linear relationship seen in Drosophila laboratory studies, with inbreeding depression increasing by 0.17 lethal equivalents for every 10 per cent increase in stress level. Our results suggest that under natural conditions stress level is a primary determinant of the magnitude of inbreeding depression and should be considered when assessing extinction vulnerability in small populations.