BACKGROUND: Currently, the benefit of chemotherapy (CT) in node-negative breast carcinoma (NNBC) is discussed. The evaluation of classical clinical and histological factors is limited to assess individual outcome. A statistical model was developed to improve the prognostic accuracy of NNBC. METHODS: A total of 305 node-negative breast carcinomas who underwent surgery (+/- radiotherapy) but no adjuvant treatment were selected. Putative prognosis factors including age, tumour size, oestrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PgR), Scarff-Bloom-Richardon (SBR) grading, urokinase plasminogen activator (uPA), plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1) and thymidine kinase (TK) were evaluated. The developed model was internally validated using Harrell's concordance index. A prognosis index (PI) was proposed and compared with Adjuvant! Online program. RESULTS: Age (p < 0.001), pathological tumour size (pT) (p < 0.001), PgR (p = 0.02), and PAI-1 (p ≤ 0.001) were included in the Cox regression model predicting Breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) at 5-years. Internal validation revealed a concordance index of 0.71. A PI score was derived from our nomogram. The PI score was significantly associated with BCSS (hazard ratio (HR): 4.1 for intermediate, p=0.02, HR: 8.8, p < 0.001 for high group) as compared to Adjuvant! Online score (HR: 1.4, p=0.14). CONCLUSION: A nomogram can be used to predict probability survival curves for individual breast cancer patients.
BACKGROUND: Currently, the benefit of chemotherapy (CT) in node-negative breast carcinoma (NNBC) is discussed. The evaluation of classical clinical and histological factors is limited to assess individual outcome. A statistical model was developed to improve the prognostic accuracy of NNBC. METHODS: A total of 305 node-negative breast carcinomas who underwent surgery (+/- radiotherapy) but no adjuvant treatment were selected. Putative prognosis factors including age, tumour size, oestrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PgR), Scarff-Bloom-Richardon (SBR) grading, urokinase plasminogen activator (uPA), plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1) and thymidine kinase (TK) were evaluated. The developed model was internally validated using Harrell's concordance index. A prognosis index (PI) was proposed and compared with Adjuvant! Online program. RESULTS: Age (p < 0.001), pathological tumour size (pT) (p < 0.001), PgR (p = 0.02), and PAI-1 (p ≤ 0.001) were included in the Cox regression model predicting Breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) at 5-years. Internal validation revealed a concordance index of 0.71. A PI score was derived from our nomogram. The PI score was significantly associated with BCSS (hazard ratio (HR): 4.1 for intermediate, p=0.02, HR: 8.8, p < 0.001 for high group) as compared to Adjuvant! Online score (HR: 1.4, p=0.14). CONCLUSION: A nomogram can be used to predict probability survival curves for individual breast cancerpatients.
Authors: Xifeng Wu; Yuanqing Ye; Carlos H Barcenas; Wong-Ho Chow; Qing H Meng; Mariana Chavez-MacGregor; Michelle A T Hildebrandt; Hua Zhao; Xiangjun Gu; Yang Deng; Elizabeth Wagar; Francisco J Esteva; Debu Tripathy; Gabriel N Hortobagyi Journal: J Natl Cancer Inst Date: 2017-07-01 Impact factor: 13.506