Long-term effects of physical training on aerobic capacity: controlled study of former elite athletes.

We studied 15-yr changes in physical training, subcutaneous fat, and maximal oxygen consumption (VO2 max) in male former elite athletes (27 long-distance runners and 9 bobsledders) and in a control group of 23 normal men. In 1973, elite athletes all trained vigorously, whereas in 1988 there was a great interindividual variation in physical training. In the lowest tertile of runners' training activity in 1988 (n = 9), the rate of decline in VO2max during the 15 yr was 1.11 +/- 0.15 (SE) ml.kg-1.min-1.yr-1, or 16% per decade, whereas the most active quintile of runners (n = 5) tended to increase VO2max (NS). The remaining 13 runners showed a rate of decline in VO2max of 0.54 +/- 0.14 ml.kg-1.min-1.yr-1, or 7% per decade. The rates of decline were 0.22 +/- 0.12 and 0.56 +/- 0.10 ml.kg-1.min-1.yr-1, or 5 and 11% per decade, in bobsledders and controls, respectively. When normalized for lean body mass instead of body weight, VO2max showed a reduced variability in the rate of decline, with values ranging from 0.00 +/- 0.27 (most active runners) to 0.69 +/- 0.15 ml.kg lean body mass-1.min-1.yr-1 (least active runners). In multiple linear regression analysis, 15-yr changes in mileage, running pace, and truncal fat together explained 51% of variance in the 15-yr change of VO2max normalized for body weight in runners and 41% in all study men. In runners, change in truncal fat was dependent on changes in both mileage and running pace. In the presence of physical training and anthropometric variables in the regression equation, the 15-yr decrease in maximum heart rate was only modestly predictive of the change in VO2max.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)