Impacts of an introduced forest pathogen on the risk of Lyme disease in California.

Global changes such as deforestation, climate change, and invasive species have the potential to greatly alter zoonotic disease systems through impacts on biodiversity. This study examined the impact of the invasive pathogen that causes sudden oak death (SOD) on the ecology of Lyme disease in California. The Lyme disease bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi, is maintained in the far western United States by a suite of animal reservoirs including the dusky-footed woodrat (Neotoma fuscipes) and deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus), and is transmitted by the western black-legged tick (Ixodes pacificus). Other vertebrates, such as the western fence lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis), are important tick hosts but are not reservoirs of the pathogen. Previous work found that higher levels of SOD are correlated with greater abundance of P. maniculatus and S. occidentalis and lower N. fuscipes abundance. Here we model the contribution of these tick hosts to Lyme disease risk and also evaluate the potential impact of SOD on infection prevalence of the tick vector. By empirically parameterizing a static model with field and laboratory data on tick hosts, we predict that SOD reduces an important index of disease risk, nymphal infection prevalence, leading to a reduction in Lyme disease risk in certain coastal woodlands. Direct observational analysis of the impact of SOD on nymphal infection prevalence supports these model results. This study underscores the important direct and indirect impacts of invasive plant pathogens on biodiversity, the transmission cycles of zoonotic diseases, and ultimately human health.