Can climate change jeopardize predator control of invasive herbivore species? A case study in avocado agro-ecosystems in Spain.

Climate change is one of the most important factors affecting the phenology, distribution, composition and diversity of organisms. In agricultural systems many pests and natural enemies are arthropods. As poikilotherm organisms, their body temperature is highly dependent on environmental conditions. Because higher trophic levels typically have lower tolerance to high temperatures than lower trophic levels, trends towards increasing local or regional temperatures may affect the strength of predator/prey interactions and disrupt pest control. Furthermore, increasing temperatures may create climate corridors that could facilitate the invasion and establishment of invasive species originating from warmer areas. In this study we examined the effect of environmental conditions on the dynamics of an agro-ecosystem community located in southern Spain, using field data on predator/prey dynamics and climate gathered during four consecutive years. The study system was composed of an ever-green tree species (avocado), an exotic tetranychid mite, and two native species of phytoseiid mites found in association with this new pest. We also present a climatological analysis of the temperature trend in the area of study during the last 28 years, as evidence of temperature warming occurring in the area. We found that the range of temperatures with positive per capita growth rates was much wider in prey than in predators, and that relative humidity contributed to explain the growth rate variation in predators, but not in prey. Predator and prey differences in thermal performance curves could explain why natural enemies did not respond numerically to the pest when environmental conditions were harsh.