Prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation in a large coronary artery bypass grafting cohort.

The objective of this study was to identify and evaluate predictors of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) in a large coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) cohort. This was a single centre study of 7115 consecutive patients with preoperative sinus rhythm who underwent isolated CABG between January 1996 and December 2009. Independent risk factors for POAF were identified with multiple logistic regression. The predictive quality of the final model was evaluated by comparing predicted and observed events of POAF, in an effort to find patients at high risk of developing POAF. After CABG, 2270 patients (32%) developed POAF during hospital stay. Independent risk factors of POAF included advancing age (odds ratio, OR 2.0-7.3), preoperative S-creatinine ≥ 150 µmol/l (OR 1.6), male gender (OR 1.2), New York Heart Association class III/IV (OR, 1.2), smoking (OR 1.1), prior myocardial infarction (OR 1.1) and absence of hyperlipidemia (OR 0.9). The final prediction model was moderate (area under curve, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.64). Patients with POAF had more postoperative complications, including a higher incidence of stroke and increased length of hospital stay. In conclusion, several risk factors for POAF were identified, but the moderate value of the prediction model confirms the difficulty of identifying patients at high risk of developing POAF after CABG.