Xuelin Huang1, Jorge Cortes, Hagop Kantarjian. 1. Department of Biostatistics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA. xlhuang@mdanderson.org
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The annual incidence of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in the United States is approximately 4800 cases. With the success of tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) therapy, the all-cause annual mortality rate was reduced to 2%. Therefore, the prevalence of CML is increasing over time. Estimating the CML prevalence and plateau prevalence is important in the implementation of health care strategies and future therapeutic trials. The objective of this report was to estimate the increasing prevalence and plateau prevalence of CML in future years. METHODS: The prevalence of CML was estimated based on several parameters: the annual mortality rate on TKI therapy compared with a age-matched, normal population; the incidence of CML; the anticipated population growth in the United States; and aging of the population. RESULTS: On the basis of these calculations, the mortality ratio of patients with CML compared with an age-matched normal population was approximately 1.53. The estimated prevalence of CML is approximately 70,000 in 2010, 112,000 in 2020, 144,000 in 2030, 167,000 in 2040, and 181,000 in 2050, when it will reach a near plateau prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: The current results indicated that the prevalence of CML will continue to increase to reach a near plateau prevalence 35 times the annual incidence. These estimates should be considered in health care policies and in the design of future studies in CML.
BACKGROUND: The annual incidence of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in the United States is approximately 4800 cases. With the success of tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) therapy, the all-cause annual mortality rate was reduced to 2%. Therefore, the prevalence of CML is increasing over time. Estimating the CML prevalence and plateau prevalence is important in the implementation of health care strategies and future therapeutic trials. The objective of this report was to estimate the increasing prevalence and plateau prevalence of CML in future years. METHODS: The prevalence of CML was estimated based on several parameters: the annual mortality rate on TKI therapy compared with a age-matched, normal population; the incidence of CML; the anticipated population growth in the United States; and aging of the population. RESULTS: On the basis of these calculations, the mortality ratio of patients with CML compared with an age-matched normal population was approximately 1.53. The estimated prevalence of CML is approximately 70,000 in 2010, 112,000 in 2020, 144,000 in 2030, 167,000 in 2040, and 181,000 in 2050, when it will reach a near plateau prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: The current results indicated that the prevalence of CML will continue to increase to reach a near plateau prevalence 35 times the annual incidence. These estimates should be considered in health care policies and in the design of future studies in CML.
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