| Literature DB >> 22289136 |
Pietro Bulian1, Davide Rossi, Francesco Forconi, Giovanni Del Poeta, Francesco Bertoni, Emanuele Zucca, Marco Montillo, Gabriele Pozzato, Giovanni D'Arena, Dimitar G Efremov, Roberto Marasca, Francesco Lauria, Gianluca Gaidano, Valter Gattei, Luca Laurenti.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Prognostic index for survival estimation by clinical-demographic variables were previously proposed in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients. Our objective was to test in a large retrospective cohort of CLL patients the prognostic power of biological and clinical-demographic variable in a comprehensive multivariate model. A new prognostic index was proposed.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2012 PMID: 22289136 PMCID: PMC3297493 DOI: 10.1186/1479-5876-10-18
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Transl Med ISSN: 1479-5876 Impact factor: 5.531
Patients characteristics (n = 620)
| median age, years (range) | 65 (21-92) |
|---|---|
| median ALC, x109/L (range) | 14 (2-460) |
| median β2M, xULN (range) | 1.06 (0.13-11.9) |
| LNR ≥3 | 25% |
| Rai stage | |
| 0 | 48% |
| I-II | 44% |
| III-IV | 8% |
| Binet stage | |
| A | 70% |
| B | 22% |
| C | 8% |
| Male sex | 60% |
| CD38 expression >30% | 27% |
| ZAP-70 expression >20% | 41% |
| Unmutated IgVH | 41% |
| del11q- | 9% |
| del17p- | 10% |
| Year of diagnosis | |
| <=2000 | 29% |
| 2001-2005 | 49% |
| >2005 | 22% |
| Treated | 53% |
| median TTT, years | 5.2 |
| Chemotherapy | 28% |
| Chemoimmunotherapy | 15% |
| missing data | 10% |
| Dead | 20% |
| median OS, years | 15 |
ALC, absolute lymphocyte count; LNR, number of lymph node involved regions; ULN, upper limit of normal; β2 M, beta-2 microglobulin, OS, overall survival; TTT, time to treatment. Complete data (n = 620) available for all variables, except for therapy
Figure 1Overall survival (OS) and time to treatment (TTT) in the whole cohort of 620 CLL patients.
Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis for overall survival
| univariate | multivariate | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| age>65 years | 2.99 | <0.0001 | 3.53 | <0.0001 | 3.43 | <0.0001 |
| male sex | 1.86 | 0.0018 | 1.84 | 0.0030 | 1.80 | 0.0038 |
| ALC>14 × 109/L | 1.67 | 0.0062 | 1.34 | 0.17 | - | |
| β2M>1 × ULN | 1.43 | <0.0001 | 1.51 | 0.06 | 1.59 | 0.029 |
| LNR ≥3 | 3.06 | <0.0001 | 1.20 | 0.59 | - | |
| Binet stage | <0.0001 | |||||
| A | ref | ref | ref | |||
| B | 3.20 | 2.19 | 0.0352 | 2.77 | <0.0001 | |
| C | 4.95 | 2.86 | 0.0028 | 3.68 | <0.0001 | |
| Rai stage | <0.0001 | |||||
| 0 | ref | ND | ||||
| I-II | 1.66 | ND | ||||
| III-IV | 5.08 | ND | ||||
| CD38>30% | 1.73 | 0.0038 | 1.03 | 0.88 | - | |
| ZAP-70>20% | 1.53 | 0.0204 | 1.04 | 0.83 | - | |
| Unmutated IGHV | 2.46 | <0.0001 | 2.04 | 0.0008 | 2.04 | 0.0003 |
| del17p | 3.44 | <0.0001 | 2.14 | 0.0015 | 2.06 | 0.0022 |
| del11q | 1.39 | 0.248 | ND | |||
| Year of diagnosis | 0.0130 | (in model as strata)* | (in model as strata)* | |||
| <2001 | ref | |||||
| 2001-2005 | 1.46 | |||||
| >2005 | 2.34 | |||||
| Therapy | 0.106 | ND | ||||
| Chemotherapy | ref | |||||
| Immunochemotherapy | 0.6 | |||||
Final model obtained by stepwise backward elimination
HR: hazard ratio; ND: not done
Prognostic score for overall survival with clinical and biological risk factors and bootstrap validation
| final model1 | variable selection2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age>65 years | 1.23 | 3.43 | <0.0001 | 100 | 2 |
| Binet B | 1.02 | 2.77 | <0.0001 | 92 | 2 |
| Binet C | 1.30 | 3.68 | <0.0001 | 92 | 3 |
| Gender (male) | 0.59 | 1.80 | 0.0038 | 94 | 1 |
| β2M >1 × ULN | 0.46 | 1.59 | 0.0294 | 66 | 1 |
| Del17p | 0.72 | 2.06 | 0.0022 | 93 | 1 |
| Unmutated IGHV | 0.71 | 2.04 | 0.0003 | 98 | 1 |
| calendar year | (in strata) | - | - | 87 | - |
HR: hazard ratio; β: Cox regression coefficient; ULN, upper limit of normal
1 Final model adjusted for year of diagnosis
2 Percentage of selection in 620 leave-one-out bootstrap samples. Percentages for del11, ZAP-70, CD38, LFN, ALC were respectively 28%, 21%, 15%, 24%, 46%
Leave-one-out cross validation of the final model
| Step | covariate removed | no. of variables | log-l | AIC | cvlog-l |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | all (null model) | 0 | -675.7 | -675.7 | -846.8 |
| 1 | none (final model) | 6 | -502.1 | -509.1 | -743.1 |
| 2 | β2M | 5 | -504.6 | -510.6 | -738.8 |
| 3 | β2M and sex | 4 | -618.9 | -623.9 | -738.8 |
The final model included the following 6 variables: Binet stage, age > 65 years, unmutated IgVH, presence of del17p, male sex, β2 M > ULN
Log-l: log-likelihood, AIC: Akaike's information criterion (AIC); cvlog-l: cross-validated log likelihood Removal of the least important variables (beta2M and sex) in step 2 and 3 resulted in a reduction of the fit by at least 2 criteria, demonstrating the validity of the model with 6 variables (according to reference #26)
Univariate and multivariate analysis of TTT in Binet A patients below 70 year of age (n = 291, no missing cases)
| univariate | multivariate | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| age>65 years | 22 | 0.96 | 0.85 | - | |||
| male sex | 56 | 1.01 | 0.97 | - | |||
| ALC>14 × 109/L | 42 | 1.35 | 0.0974 | - | |||
| β2M>1 × ULN | 38 | 2.04 | <0.0001 | 1.53 | 0.0242 | 1.64 | 0.0069 |
| CD38>30% | 21 | 2.46 | <0.0001 | 1.42 | 0.1042 | - | |
| ZAP-70>20% | 36 | 2.72 | <0.0001 | 1.39 | 0.1374 | - | |
| Unmutated IGHV | 32 | 3.60 | <0.0001 | 2.16 | 0.0012 | 3.09 | <0.0001 |
| del17p | 7 | 2.59 | 0.0015 | 1.37 | 0.31 | - | |
| del11q | 5 | 3.09 | 0.0005 | 2.21 | 0.02 | 1.97 | 0.0383 |
| Year of diagnosis | 0.85 | - | |||||
| <2001 | 33 | ref | |||||
| 2001-2005 | 48 | 1.07 | |||||
| >2005 | 19 | 0.89 | |||||
Final model obtained by stepwise backward elimination
HR: hazard ratio
Figure 2Clinical-biological index. a) histogram of score points according to clinical-biological prognostic model. Vertical red lines show the positions of cut points splitting sample in 3 risk groups. b) Kaplan-Meyer plot showing prognostic stratification in 3 risk groups according to clinical-biological score. c) prognostic stratification in 3 risk groups according to Wierda et al prognostic score6.
Figure 3Heatmap of individual patient clinical-biological scores. Columns refer to individual patient; rows refer to predictors. In heatmap, each dicotomic predictor is indicated in green or red if present in its favourable or unfavourable configuration, respectively. Binet stages A, B, C are indicated in green, red and black, respectively. Yellow bars show the splits between low, intermediate and high-risk groups. Number of patients in each score class are reported at the bottom of columns.
Figure 4Nomogram for predicting overall survival according to the clinical-biological prognostic index. To read the nomogram, draw a vertical line from each tick marker indicating the status of a predictor to the top axis labeled Points. Sum the points and find the corresponding number on the axis labeled Total Points. Draw a vertical line down to the axes showing 5- and 10-year overall survival rates and median survival. Beta2M, ß2 microglobulin; ULN, upper limit of normal; OS, overall survival.
Figure 5Kaplan-Meyer plots of overall survival (OS) for the 6 variable of the clinical-prognostic index.