Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157 on lettuce, based on survival data from controlled studies in a climate chamber.

The aims of the study were to determine the survival of Escherichia coli O157 on lettuce as a function of temperature and light intensity, and to use that information in a screening-level quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) in order to evaluate risk-reducing strategies including irrigation water quality guidelines, rinsing, and holding time between last irrigation and harvest. Iceberg lettuce was grown in a climate chamber and inoculated with E. coli O157. Bacterial numbers were determined with the standard plate count method after inoculation and 1, 2, 4, and 7 day(s) postinoculation. The experiments were carried out at 11, 18, and 25°C in light intensities of 0, 400, and 600 mmol (m(2))(-1) s(-1). There was a significant effect of temperature and light intensity on survival, with less bacteria isolated from lettuce incubated at 25 and 18°C compared with 11°C (P < 0.0001), and in light intensities of 400 and 600 mmol (m(2))(-1) s(-1) compared with 0 mmol (m(2))(-1) s(-1) (P < 0.001). The average log reductions after 1, 2, 4, and 7 day(s) were 1.14, 1.71, 2.04, and 3.0, respectively. The QMRA compared the relative risk with lettuce consumption from 20 scenarios. A stricter water quality guideline gave a mean fivefold risk reduction. Holding times of 1, 2, 4, and 7 day(s) reduced the risk 3, 8, 8, and 18 times, respectively, compared with harvest the same day as the last irrigation. Finally, rinsing lettuce for 15 s in cold tap water prior to consumption gave a sixfold risk reduction compared with eating unrinsed lettuce. Sensitivity analyses indicated that variation in bacterial inactivation had the most significant effect on the risk outcome. A QMRA determining the relative risks between scenarios reduces uncertainty and can provide risk managers with decision support.