Global emission of black carbon from motor vehicles from 1960 to 2006.

Black carbon (BC) is a key short-lived climate change forcer. Motor vehicles are important sources of BC in the environment. BC emission factors (EF(BC)), defined as BC emitted per mass of fuel consumed, are critical in the development of BC emission inventories for motor vehicles. However, measured EF(BC) for motor vehicles vary in orders of magnitude, which is one of the major sources of uncertainty in the estimation of emissions. In this study, the main factors affecting EF(BC) for motor vehicles were investigated based on 385 measured EF(BC) collected from the literature. It was found that EF(BC) for motor vehicles of a given year in a particular country can be predicted using gross domestic product per capita (GDP(c)), temperature, and the year a country's GDP(c) reached 3000 USD (Y(3000)). GDP(c) represents technical progress in terms of emission control, while Y(3000) suggest the technical transfer from developed to developing countries. For global BC emission calculations, 87 and 64% of the variation can be eliminated for diesel and gasoline vehicles by using this model. In addition to a reduction in uncertainty, the model can be used to develop a global on-road vehicle BC emission inventory with spatial and temporal resolution.