Predicting development of dementia in the elderly with the Selective Reminding Test.

The ability to predict the development of dementia through the detection of memory impairment in nondemented individuals was assessed with the Selective Reminding Test (SR), a popular test of verbal memory functioning in the elderly. The SR was administered to 385 nondemented volunteer subjects (mean age = 80.4 years) enrolled in a longitudinal study of risk factors in the development of dementia. Of these, 36 subjects ultimately became demented. SR scores obtained from 1 to 2 years prior to the diagnosis of dementia were compared with a set of previously established cutoff scores derived from a cognitively normal elderly sample. The results demonstrated that sum of recall and delayed recall were the SR measures best able to predict dementia with sensitivities of 47% and 44%, respectively. The predictive values were 37% and 40%, respectively, or better than two-and-one-half times the base rate. The contributions of both the SR Test and the Fuld Object-Memory Test (OM) were discussed in terms of the further understanding of the characteristics of the preclinical phase of dementia.