Nutrients in estuaries--an overview and the potential impacts of climate change.

The fate and cycling of macronutrients introduced into estuaries depend upon a range of interlinked processes. Hydrodynamics and morphology in combination with freshwater inflow control the freshwater flushing time, and the timescale for biogeochemical processes to operate that include microbial activity, particle-dissolved phase interactions, and benthic exchanges. In some systems atmospheric inputs and exchanges with coastal waters can also be important. Climate change will affect nutrient inputs and behaviour through modifications to temperature, wind patterns, the hydrological cycle, and sea level rise. Resulting impacts include: 1) inundation of freshwater systems 2) changes in stratification, flushing times and phytoplankton productivity 3) increased coastal storm activity 4) changes in species and ecosystem function. A combination of continuing high inputs of nutrients through human activity and climate change is anticipated to lead to enhanced eutrophication in the future. The most obvious impacts of increasing global temperature will be in sub-arctic systems where permafrost zones will be reduced in combination with enhanced inputs from glacial systems. Improved process understanding in several key areas including cycling of organic N and P, benthic exchanges, resuspension, impact of bio-irrigation, particle interactions, submarine groundwater discharges, and rates and magnitude of bacterially-driven recycling processes, is needed. Development of high frequency in situ nutrient analysis systems will provide data to improve predictive models that need to incorporate a wider variety of key factors, although the complexity of estuarine systems makes such modelling a challenge. However, overall a more holistic approach is needed to effectively understand, predict and manage the impact of macronutrients on estuaries.