Discriminant analysis of ¹⁸F-fluorothymidine kinetic parameters to predict survival in patients with recurrent high-grade glioma.

PURPOSE: The primary objective of this study was to investigate whether changes in 3'-deoxy-3'-[¹⁸F]fluorothymidine (¹⁸F-FLT) kinetic parameters, taken early after the start of therapy, could predict overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with recurrent malignant glioma undergoing treatment with bevacizumab and irinotecan. EXPERIMENTAL
DESIGN: High-grade recurrent brain tumors were investigated in 18 patients (8 male and 10 female), ages 26 to 76 years. Each had 3 dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) studies as follows: at baseline and after 2 and 6 weeks from the start of treatment, ¹⁸F-FLT (2.0 MBq/kg) was injected intravenously, and dynamic PET images were acquired for 1 hour. Factor analysis generated factor images from which blood and tumor uptake curves were derived. A three-compartment, two-tissue model was applied to estimate tumor ¹⁸F-FLT kinetic rate constants using a metabolite- and partial volume-corrected input function. Different combinations of predictor variables were exhaustively searched in a discriminant function to accurately classify patients into their known OS and PFS groups. A leave-one-out cross-validation technique was used to assess the generalizability of the model predictions.
RESULTS: In this study population, changes in single parameters such as standardized uptake value or influx rate constant did not accurately classify patients into their respective OS groups (<1 and ≥ 1 year; hit ratios ≤ 78%). However, changes in a set of ¹⁸F-FLT kinetic parameters could perfectly separate these two groups of patients (hit ratio = 100%) and were also able to correctly classify patients into their respective PFS groups (<100 and ≥ 100 days; hit ratio = 88%).
CONCLUSIONS: Discriminant analysis using changes in ¹⁸F-FLT kinetic parameters early during treatment seems to be a powerful method for evaluating the efficacy of therapeutic regimens. ©2011 AACR.