Slowing demand for total joint arthroplasty in a population of 3.2 million.

Accurate projections of future demand require constant updates of current data. This article reviews the most recent usage data for primary total joint arthroplasty (TJA) in a community-based hospital system with 3.2 million members. We used administrative databases to determine plan membership, surgical volume, and age-adjusted incidence rates for TJA from 1996 through 2009. The annual growth rate in surgical volume peaked in 2002 at 18% and decreased to 3% by 2009. The annual growth rate for age-adjusted incidence rates peaked in 2002 at 13% and declined to 2% in 2009. In our population, the incidence of TJA continues to rise but at a much slower pace than in recent years.