BACKGROUND: Nomograms are statistics-based tools that provide the overall probability of a specific outcome. In our previous study, we developed a nomogram that predicts recurrence of early gastric cancer (EGC) after curative resection. We carried out this study to externally validate our EGC nomogram. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The EGC nomogram was established from a retrospective EGC database that included 2923 consecutive patients. This nomogram was independently externally validated for a cohort of 1058 consecutive patients. For the EGC nomogram validation, we assessed both discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: Within the follow-up period (median 37 months), a total of 11 patients (1.1%) experienced recurrence. The concordance index (c-index) was 0.7 (P = 0.02) and the result of the overall C index was 0.82 [P = 0.006, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59-1.00]. The goodness of fit test showed that the EGC nomogram had significantly good fit for 1- and 2-year survival intervals (P = 0.998 and 0.879, respectively). The actual and predicted survival outcomes showed good agreement, suggesting that the survival predictions from the nomogram are well calibrated externally. CONCLUSIONS: A preexisting nomogram for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) of EGC after surgery was externally validated. The nomogram is useful for accurate and individual prediction of DFS, patient prognostication, counseling, and follow-up planning.
BACKGROUND: Nomograms are statistics-based tools that provide the overall probability of a specific outcome. In our previous study, we developed a nomogram that predicts recurrence of early gastric cancer (EGC) after curative resection. We carried out this study to externally validate our EGC nomogram. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The EGC nomogram was established from a retrospective EGC database that included 2923 consecutive patients. This nomogram was independently externally validated for a cohort of 1058 consecutive patients. For the EGC nomogram validation, we assessed both discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: Within the follow-up period (median 37 months), a total of 11 patients (1.1%) experienced recurrence. The concordance index (c-index) was 0.7 (P = 0.02) and the result of the overall C index was 0.82 [P = 0.006, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59-1.00]. The goodness of fit test showed that the EGC nomogram had significantly good fit for 1- and 2-year survival intervals (P = 0.998 and 0.879, respectively). The actual and predicted survival outcomes showed good agreement, suggesting that the survival predictions from the nomogram are well calibrated externally. CONCLUSIONS: A preexisting nomogram for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) of EGC after surgery was externally validated. The nomogram is useful for accurate and individual prediction of DFS, patient prognostication, counseling, and follow-up planning.
Authors: I N Haskins; A S Prabhu; D M Krpata; A J Perez; L Tastaldi; C Tu; S Rosenblatt; B K Poulose; M J Rosen Journal: Hernia Date: 2017-06-19 Impact factor: 4.739
Authors: Masaya Nakauchi; Colin M Court; Laura H Tang; Mithat Gönen; Yelena Y Janjigian; Steven B Maron; Daniela Molena; Daniel G Coit; Murray F Brennan; Vivian E Strong Journal: J Am Coll Surg Date: 2022-04-28 Impact factor: 6.532
Authors: Liang Cao; Luke V Selby; Xiang Hu; Yi Zhang; Yelena Y Janjigian; Laura Tang; Daniel G Coit; Murray F Brennan; Vivian E Strong Journal: J Surg Oncol Date: 2016-04-04 Impact factor: 3.454