An improved model for predicting radiation pneumonitis incorporating clinical and dosimetric variables.

PURPOSE: Single dose-volume metrics are of limited value for the prediction of radiation pneumonitis (RP) in day-to-day clinical practice. We investigated whether multiparametric models that incorporate clinical and physiologic factors might have improved accuracy. METHODS AND MATERIALS: The records of 160 patients who received radiation therapy for non-small-cell lung cancer were reviewed. All patients were treated to the same dose and with an identical technique. Dosimetric, pulmonary function, and clinical parameters were analyzed to determine their ability to predict for the subsequent development of RP.
RESULTS: Twenty-seven patients (17%) developed RP. On univariate analysis, the following factors were significantly correlated with the risk of pneumonitis: fractional volume of lung receiving >5-20 Gy, absolute volume of lung spared from receiving >5-15 Gy, mean lung dose, craniocaudal position of the isocenter, transfer coefficient for carbon monoxide (KCOc), total lung capacity, coadministration of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, and coadministration of angiotensin receptor antagonists. By combining the absolute volume of lung spared from receiving >5 Gy with the KCOc, we defined a new parameter termed Transfer Factor Spared from receiving >5 Gy (TFS(5)). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for TFS(5) was 0.778, increasing to 0.846 if patients receiving modulators of the renin-angiotensin system were excluded from the analysis. Patients with a TFS(5) <2.17 mmol/min/kPa had a risk of RP of 30% compared with 5% for the group with a TFS(5) ≥ 2.17.
CONCLUSIONS: TFS(5) represents a simple parameter that can be used in routine clinical practice to more accurately segregate patients into high- and low-risk groups for developing RP.