A simulation model of waterborne gastro-intestinal disease outbreaks: description and initial evaluation.

We present an agent-based simulation model for generating realistic multivariable outbreak signals. The model defines a synthetic population and simulates the dissemination of pathogenic organisms through a municipal water distribution system, the mobility of individuals between geographic locations, their exposure to pathogens through water consumption, and disease progression in infected individuals. We present the results of an initial evaluation of the model - a simulation study replicating the historical outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Milwaukee in 1993.