Cryptosporidium dose-response studies: variation between hosts.

The issue of variation is highly important in dose-response analysis: variation among genetically related pathogens infecting the same host, but also variation among hosts, in susceptibility to infection by the same pathogen. This latter issue is addressed here for the protozoan parasite Cryptosporidium parvum, the causative agent for many outbreaks of water-borne gastrointestinal illness. In human feeding studies, infectivity has been shown to be low in subjects with high preexisting anti-Cryptosporidium IgG-levels. Here we adapt the hit theory model of microbial infection to incorporate covariables, characterizing the immune status of the susceptible host. The probability of any single oocyst in the inoculum to cause infection appears to depend on preexisting IgG-levels. This does not necessarily imply direct protection by the humoral immune system; high IgG-levels may reflect a recent episode of infection/illness, and be an epi-phenomenon associated with other protective responses. The IgG-dependence of the dose-response relation can be easily applied in quantitative risk analysis. The distribution of anti-Cryptosporidium IgG levels in the general population is accessible by analyzing serum banks, which are maintained in many Western countries. Using such an approach provides first insights into the variation of susceptibility to infection in the general population.