Statistical modelling of growth using a mixed model with orthogonal polynomials.

In statistical modelling, the effects of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are often regarded as time-independent. However, for traits recorded repeatedly, it is very interesting to investigate the behaviour of gene effects over time. In the analysis, simulated data from the 13th QTL-MAS Workshop (Wageningen, The Netherlands, April 2009) was used and the major goal was the modelling of genetic effects as time-dependent. For this purpose, a mixed model which describes each effect using the third-order Legendre orthogonal polynomials, in order to account for the correlation between consecutive measurements, is fitted. In this model, SNPs are modelled as fixed, while the environment is modelled as random effects. The maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters are obtained by the expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm and the significance of the additive SNP effects is based on the likelihood ratio test, with p-values corrected for multiple testing. For each significant SNP, the percentage of the total variance contributed by this SNP is calculated. Moreover, by using a model which simultaneously incorporates effects of all of the SNPs, the prediction of future yields is conducted. As a result, 179 from the total of 453 SNPs covering 16 out of 18 true quantitative trait loci (QTL) were selected. The correlation between predicted and true breeding values was 0.73 for the data set with all SNPs and 0.84 for the data set with selected SNPs. In conclusion, we showed that a longitudinal approach allows for estimating changes of the variance contributed by each SNP over time and demonstrated that, for prediction, the pre-selection of SNPs plays an important role.