Potential gains from hospital mergers in Denmark.

The Danish hospital sector faces a major rebuilding program to centralize activity in fewer and larger hospitals. We aim to conduct an efficiency analysis of hospitals and to estimate the potential cost savings from the planned hospital mergers. We use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to estimate a cost frontier. Based on this analysis, we calculate an efficiency score for each hospital and estimate the potential gains from the proposed mergers by comparing individual efficiencies with the efficiency of the combined hospitals. Furthermore, we apply a decomposition algorithm to split merger gains into technical efficiency, size (scale) and harmony (mix) gains. The motivation for this decomposition is that some of the apparent merger gains may actually be available with less than a full-scale merger, e.g., by sharing best practices and reallocating certain resources and tasks. Our results suggest that many hospitals are technically inefficient, and the expected "best practice" hospitals are quite efficient. Also, some mergers do not seem to lower costs. This finding indicates that some merged hospitals become too large and therefore experience diseconomies of scale. Other mergers lead to considerable cost reductions; we find potential gains resulting from learning better practices and the exploitation of economies of scope. To ensure robustness, we conduct a sensitivity analysis using two alternative returns-to-scale assumptions and two alternative estimation approaches. We consistently find potential gains from improving the technical efficiency and the exploitation of economies of scope from mergers.